How Can Bengals Win Super Bowl? Advanced Stats Tell Encouraging Story
Keep an eye on Tee Higgins when the Bengals need a big play
The Cincinnati Bengals are underdogs versus the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI, but that doesn’t mean they can’t bring the Lombardi back to Ohio.
There actually are quite a few betting trends on the Bengals’ side entering Sunday’s showdown at SoFi Stadium in LA. Over the last 10 years, underdogs are 6-4 straight-up and against the spread, as pointed out by VSiN.com this week. Not only that, teams getting three points or more — which the 4-point underdog Bengals are — have gone 5-1 against the spread in that same 10-year stretch. And when Joe Burrow and company have been getting a field goal or more this season, the Bengals have covered all five times.
Covering and winning obviously are different, but in the 55-year history of the Super Bowl, the team that covered has also won outright 46 times, and the underdog has never covered a spread without winning the Super Bowl with a line of less than six points.
We did a deep dive into the stats and found a few ways the Bengals can win the Super Bowl on Sunday night.
Burrow, Bengals say “bring on the blitz”
One of the biggest narratives in this game is what the LA pass rush can do against the leaky Cincy offensive line. But here’s the thing: The Rams’ pressure rate is 20.7%, which ranked 27th in the entire league. To make up for that, LA blitzed on 28% of its defensive plays, a number far higher than you’d expect for a team with as much top-end pass-rushing talent. Joe Burrow averaged 8.08 yards per dropback against the blitz, ranking him fourth among all qualified QBs, and 122.6 passer rating versus the blitz also ranked in the top four.
Big-play bonanza
Here’s one way, perhaps the most likely way, the Bengals win this game: They get a ton of big plays, including a long touchdown or two. No team in the NFL had more plays of 50 or more yards this season, and only five teams had fewer touches per big play (10-yard rush or 20-yard reception or more). Only the Cowboys scored more touchdowns of 20-plus yards, and no one scored more touchdowns of 40 yards or more.
Tee’d up on third down
This one is going to seem very random, but it’s often these kinds of plays that can swing a Super Bowl. If and when the Bengals get into third-and-long situations, keep an eye on Tee Higgins. The Bengals’ wideout was dynamite on third downs of 5 yards or more to go. Burrow targeted Higgins 19 times in such situations, and Higgins caught 15 of those targets. Fourteen of those receptions went for first downs, and he averaged 17 yards per catch. The numbers get even more impressive on 3rd-and-10 or longer, which is certainly a consideration given Burrow’s propensity for taking sacks. Higgins was targeted nine times on 3rd-and-10 or longer, averaging 21 yards on seven catches, all but one going for a first down.
Evan McPherson: weapon
If the big plays aren’t there, the Bengals absolutely have to avoid the turnovers and at least give kicker Evan McPherson a chance to save them. The rookie kicker has been absolute nails. His average made field goal of 40.6 yards was the highest of any kicker with at least 15 field-goal attempts this season. His 82% success rate on field goals of 50 yards or more was eighth among kickers under the same parameters, and his percentage is probably slightly lower than the rest of the league because he attempted 11 field goals of 50 or more, which led the league. To do all that without having one kick blocked is quite impressive.
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