Today's NBA Best Bet: Back The Under In The Clippers-Mavs Rematch

I was all ready to play another favorite on Friday night and back the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road. However, after looking at the injury report, I scrapped that plan for a play on the under. That proved to be a costly decision considering the under never had much chance. In terms of the spread, the Cavaliers fought back from a 19-point deficit in the first quarter to get the cover with a 120-113 victory. While you’d think I would’ve learned my lesson by now. However, I’m coming right back with another play on the under for our Saturday’s best bet.

Let’s head to the Big D, where the Dallas Mavericks will host the Los Angeles Clippers.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Clippers +220 | Mavericks -270

Spread: Clippers +6.5 (-110) | Mavericks -6.5 (-110)

Total: Over 216 (-110) | Under 216 (-110)

NBA Championship Odds: Clippers +10000 | Mavericks +4800

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks, News, Analysis, and Picks

The Clippers and Mavericks will meet again after playing one another two days ago on Thursday night. Dallas secured a 112-105 victory as the game went over the total by just 1.5 points. The oddsmakers decided to set Saturday’s total using the same closing number (215.5) of the previous meeting. While we’ve seen some betting action push the total up to 216, I disagree with the move given the familiarity both teams should have with one another after their recent battle. As a result, this is a great spot to take a contrarian approach to the game.

One narrative you might see for this game is that the total has gone over in five straight games for the Clippers. However, facing the same team twice in three days is a unique circumstance in its own right. Let’s not forget that no team has been involved in more under results than the Mavericks, as evidenced by their 35-19-2 (64.8%) mark. Much of that has to do with their commitment defensively as they rank fifth overall in efficiency, allowing 104.1 points per 100 possessions. That number’s even down to 96.6 points over its past three games. However, a more significant reason Dallas continues to profile as an under team is its pace of play. The Mavericks are often in no rush offensively as they’re last in the league with 99.1 possessions per game.

I think there’s a good chance we’ll see Saturday’s contest played at a slower pace as well. Look to play this game under the total at 216 or better.

Pick: Under 216

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.