MLB Odds: Taking Look At Rafael Devers Projected Home Run Total

Is Devers primed for another incredible season?


March 20, 2022

Oddsmakers are setting a high line for Boston Red Sox slugger Rafael Devers’ home run total.

The last two full seasons have been special for Devers, and at 25 years old, his power will only increase.

The Red Sox third baseman has a regular-season total home run line set at 37.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Over and Under both have -110 odds, meaning a $100 bet would payout $190.91.

Case For The Over
Rafael Devers would have cashed the over in 2021, with 38 home runs in 156 games played. The 25-year-old will have another offseason under his belt, which is important at his age.

In his last three seasons, Devers’ percentage of extra-base hits that left the yard have increased yearly. In 2019, the Sox slugger was hitting a lot of doubles, as a result, 36% of his extra-base hits were home runs. In 2020, that number rose to 39%. In 2021? 50%, with a career-high 38 home runs.

Case For The Under
The case for the under is based more on year-to-year unpredictability in baseball. Devers has only hit more than 30 home runs twice in his young career, and has only exceeded this 37.5 once.

In 2019, just 14 players hit 38 home runs or more. In 2021 (the next full season), only 10 players reached the same threshold. None of those players are the same. Hitting 38 home runs is hard to do in back-to-back years, and Devers would have to do that to hit the over in 2022.

Devers is not the only player you can bet on to mash home runs, 30 of Major League Baseball’s top sluggers have lines set for regular-season home run totals.

Thumbnail photo via Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports Images

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