There’s nothing like a surprise winner to turn NASCAR expectations on their heads.
Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain and Tyler Reddick went 1-2-3 last week at Phoenix Raceway in a finish no one could have predicted. So while Ryan Blaney has owned this week’s race site of Atlanta Motor Speedway, it’s a good reminder that nothing is ever a given.
With NASCAR coming back East, here are some betting picks we’re eyeing for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ben Watanabe
Denny Hamlin, top three +280
It’s really difficult to find value with Hamlin on a week-to-week basis, which is to be expected. He’s one of the top drivers for a reason. And it’s hard to justify taking him as the winner, since he hasn’t taken the checkered flag at Atlanta since 2012. But he’s incredibly steady there, with an average finish of 10.9, and hasn’t finished outside the top 13 since 2017 (when he suffered one of his only three DNFs at Atlanta in the last 16 years). When you have a chance to take a Hamlin or Kyle Larson at a decent plus-number, you might as well pounce.
Mike Cole
Kyle Busch, top five +150
It feels like there are a few ways to look at this, but a lot of it brings me back to Busch. First off, he’s been very good at Atlanta, finishing no worse than seventh in his last five races. On the other hand, drivers expect something more resembling superspeedway racing this weekend with all the alterations to the surface at Atlanta. Busch has been solid enough on superspeedways, too, so he checks that box. Adding to the uncertainty is the threat of rain that could mess with valued track time (new cars, new surface make it even more important), and I just trust Busch to figure it out and have a good showing.
Dakota Randall
Kevin Harvick, top three +400
Harvick hasn’t finished inside the top five this season, so I’m taking a bit of a leap. However, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver has finished seventh, 12th and sixth in his last three races, respectively, and has run well all season outside of a tough finish in the Daytona 500. More importantly, Harvick has been a force at Atlanta throughout his NASCAR career. He has 16 top-10 finishes in 32 Cup starts at this track, including nine top-fives and three victories, most recently in 2020. Harvick also has five Xfinity Series wins at AMS. He’s a strong bet to finish inside the top three, and easily could win this race.
