NCAA Tournament Odds: How Professionals Are Betting Sweet 16
Wise guys are looking to take down Duke
As the NCAA Tournament field shortens to 16 teams, professional bettors tend to become much more cautious with their hard-earned money.
The betting edges lessen because all the remaining teams are at this juncture for a reason and the point spreads are much tighter than they were across the first weekend. That’s because most of the longshots are out of the picture, except of course for the mighty St. Peter’s Peacocks.
It’s much easier for bookmakers to write two-way action with less games.
“We made about nine positions in the first round and five more in the second round,” one professional bettor told NESN. “So 14 bets spread across the opening weekend. And we might only have two or three bets this round. That’s just the way it goes.
“I have no interest in a game like Kansas and Providence. There’s no betting edge with either side. Providence has played two high school teams in the tournament and sure, they looked great, but that’s because of the competition. The Friars had the easiest path to the Sweet 16. That’s not even a debate.
“But I’m not laying 7.5 against Providence, either. Kansas has shown a tendency to play down to its competition and I would like Bill Self’s bunch a lot more if they had a true point guard to captain the offense.”
One game that a few professional groups are eyeing is Texas Tech-Duke. That’s a very polarizing tilt because it’s two completely different teams squaring off for a chance to play in the Elite Eight.
The Red Raiders, currently 1-point favorites, boast the best defensive team in the country according to Ken Pomeroy and the top seven players in their rotation are upperclassmen. Meanwhile, Duke has a Top 10 offense in multiple advanced metrics and the Blue Devils play mostly freshman and sophomores.
And then there’s the elephant in the room: Mike Krzyzewski’s last NCAA Tournament.
“If Jon Scheyer was coaching this game, I would have two or three times more money on Texas Tech,” the bettor admitted. “The Coach K factor cannot be underestimated. That guy works the refs better than anybody in the history of the game. It’s amazing the calls that Duke gets every year on this stage.
“But Texas Tech is a better team from a better conference. That defense is long, athletic and tough to get open looks against. They’ll get up in the face of these young kids from Duke and clutter the passing lanes.
“I love Tech and think the line should be -3 or -3.5.”
Montana State and Notre Dame shot 17-for-52 from three against Texas Tech in a very small two-game sample size, but that’s not an anomaly. The Red Raiders held opposing teams to 31% shooting from downtown all season, they’re even better against 2-pointers — 44% and 11th in the NCAA — and they don’t put you on the foul line too much.
So you’ve got to make tons of contested shots to beat Tech.
“If Duke makes tough shots all game, you tip your cap and move on,” the bettor said. “I’m betting against that happening.?
One other trend to pay attention to as the NCAA Tournament marches on is the way point totals are bet from post to tipoff. It’s no secret that the general public bets more “Overs” than “Unders,” so when you see a total that’s dropped a couple of points, that’s rather notable.
The Texas Tech-Duke total opened at 138.5 and is now 137 at most sportsbooks around the United States. Odds are good that downward movement continues as we get closer to game time late Thursday night.
“We’ve got a little Under 138 in that one,” the bettor said. “But you just knew that game was going to get whacked down. It happens in most Texas Tech games, so you bet those Unders early rather than late. We’ve got some Under 135.5 in Michigan-Villanova, too.
“Remember, all these regionals are played at NBA arenas with tighter rims and tougher shooting backdrops. Points aren’t as easy to come by.”
