Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors Betting Model Preview
The Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers are headed back to Toronto tonight for Game 6 from Scotiabank Arena, with the 76ers looking to close out the series.
Pascal Siakam and the Raptors stole Game 5 on the road by a score of 103-88, and have given the 76ers fits over the last two contests. Siakam led all scorers with 23 points in the victory, while Joel Embiid had 20 points and 11 rebounds for Philly.
Bnged-up point guard Fred Van Vleet is currently listed as questionable for the Raptors ahead of this contest, which would be a boost for Toronto if they can get him back in the lineup.
Philadelphia 76ers (3-2) | Toronto Raptors (2-3)
Date: 04/28/2022 | Time: 07:00 PM
Location: Toronto, Ontario Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Spread Open: 76ers -1.5/ Raptors +1.5 | Current: 76ers -1.5 (-112)/ Raptors +1.5 (-108)
Game Total Open: 209.5 | Current: 210.5
Moneyline Open: 76ers -121/ Raptors +102 | Current: 76ers -122/ Raptors +104
All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Philadelphia 76ers +1600
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Toronto Raptors +12000
Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors AnalysisIt’s hard to say for sure what will happen here because no team in NBA history has been able to come back from a 3-0 deficit, while the Raptors are set to play at home tonight with a chance to tie the series. Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam have come alive for Toronto over the last two games, as they’ve played a bigger starting five without Van Vleet in the lineup, which has ultimately given Embiid and the 76ers issues.
While Van Vleet was an All-Star this year, could his potential return at less than 100 percent actually hinder what Toronto has been able to do to the 76ers big man? It’s certainly a question that needs to be asked as this series moves to Toronto tonight, with the 76ers still having two more potential chances to finish off the Raps.
The SportsGrid betting model gives the Raptors a 53.20% win probability in Game 6, but there isn’t a ton of confidence in them on the moneyline or spread. This hasn’t exactly been an easy series to break down, especially the last two Raptors wins.
Where the model does give an edge though is with the total, where the over is a five-star play tonight. So far in this series, we’ve seen point totals of 242, 219, 205, 212, and 191, with tonight’s total currently set at 211, already going up 1.5 points since the line opened. Even after a low-scoring Game 5, three of the five games in this series have eclipsed tonight’s number, so it’s certainly something worth keeping an eye on in this spot.
SG Betting Model Win Probability: Philadelphia 76ers (46.80%) vs Toronto Raptors (53.20%)
SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: TOR 2 Stars
SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: TOR 2.5 Stars
SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars
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