Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Betting Model Preview


May 17

The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will kick off the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals tonight from South Beach for Game 1. Miami advanced to the ECF after defeating the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers, while Boston handled the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks.

The Celtics won two-of-three matchups during the regular season, while Kyle Lowry of the Heat is currently listed as out for tonight’s Game 1.

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat NBA Game Information

Boston Celtics (8-3) | Miami Heat (8-3)

Date: 05/17/2022 | Time: 08:30 PM

Location: Miami, Florida | Venue: FTX Arena

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Heat -2 | Current: Heat -1.5

Game Total Open: 206.5 | Current: 204

Moneyline Open: Celtics +108/ Heat -129 | Current: Celtics +106/ Heat -124

All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Boston Celtics +210

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Miami Heat +430

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Analysis

The Heat and Celtics both match up well with one another which should make for a hard-fought series dictated by the defense. Expect to see Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler matching each other, which is why a trip to the NBA Finals could ultimately come down to whichever team’s second and third options get hot at the right time and both clubs have multiple weapons capable of stepping up.

The Celtics have defeated the reigning NBA Champions on the way to the Eastern Finals and with that series going seven games, there may be some questions about how much they have left in the tank after such a physically draining matchup.

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The SportsGrid betting model isn’t worried about that and favors the road Celtics in Game 1, giving them a 79.96% win probability, while also boasting a five-star rating on the moneyline. Looking at the spread, the model also really likes the C’s, who are currently underdogs at +1.5, with another five-star rating. This pick is in line with how good Boston has been in the second half of the season and the first two rounds of the playoffs.

In terms of the total, the model really likes the over here, giving it a five-star rating. During the regular season when these two teams met, they saw point totals of 173, 214, and 204. Tonight’s line is currently set at 204 after opening at 206.5.

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Boston Celtics (79.96%) vs Miami Heat (20.04%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: BOS 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: BOS 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars

Check out SportsGrid’s NBA Betting Model for our top picks on spreads, moneyline, and totals on every NBA Playoff Game!

Thumbnail photo via Winslow Townson/USA TODAY Sports Images

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