There’s some very eye-opening movement on the betting total heading into Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.
The “Over” has cashed in all three games so far this series, yet the total is dropping fast.
Most sportsbooks opened Monday night’s total at O/U 208, but six hours before the game, the total had dropped as low as 205.5 and 205 across the global market. And that’s with multiple shops reporting that around 70% of the total bets have been placed on the “Over.”
We’ve got ourselves some good ol’ fashioned reverse line movement. That’s when most of the bets are on one side of a market, but the line moves in the other direction. This tells you that bigger bets — often from respected players — are carrying more weight on the Heat-Celtics “Under.”
The books have adjusted accordingly and now they’re daring you to bet “Over” lower numbers.
Heat-Celtics Game 6 totals:
206 South Point
“These two teams are battered and bruised,” one professional bettor told NESN. “Look at the injury report for crying out loud. Jimmy Butler left last game with a knee injury. Kyle Lowry can’t cut. Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are banged up. Tyler Herro is out. It’s a war of attrition at this point and it’ll only get tougher to score the longer this series goes.”
Let’s not forget that Game 3 barely squeaked “Over” 208 in the final seconds.
As more and more injuries pile up between the Celtics and Heat, the pace of play should slow and rhythm should decline. It’s also worth considering that both teams have made the necessary defensive adjustments and no offensive attacks should be a surprise going forward.
This isn’t the best number, but it’s still worth a wager on the “Under.”
Heat-Celtics U206.5 -110
RECORD: (115-111, +32.0)