D-Backs vs. Cubs Player Props: Back Contreras & Schwindel

by

May 20

With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field in Chicago this afternoon, fireworks are likely as the Chicago Cubs host the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona starter Humberto Castellanos has shown some noteworthy reverse splits over the past three seasons, with right-handed hitters hitting .301 against him since 2019 (199 total batters faced). This year, Castellanos has yielded a .300 batting average and 45.5% flyball rate to right-handed bats. He’s held lefthand hitters relatively in check thus far (.196 average, 21.7% hard-hit rate).

The Diamondbacks bullpen has also struggled against right-handed batters this season, posting an MLB fourth-worst .331 WOBA (.421 SLG).

With this in mind, I’m leaning towards the Cubs righty bats this afternoon, with Willson Contreras and Frank Schwindel at a minimum looking attractive in single-hit props. It would not be too surprising to see either leave the yard today.

Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks held the Diamondbacks to a run on five hits in 5.2 innings of work in his last start, earning a no-decision in the Cubs’ 4-2 victory at Chase Field on May 14. Arizona will again send a predominately left-hand hitting lineup against Hendricks. Since 2021 lefties have hit .276, 1.72 HR/9 against him, and this season his flyball rate stands at a lofty 45.3% (38.7% hard-hit rate).

The current over/under of 11.5 runs reflects a lively affair but is more than achievable in light of the favorable splits and hitter-friendly environment. The over bet looks appealing here, and for those with more of a risk appetite, a single game parlay of the over with Contreras and Schwindel each getting a hit sits at +193 on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of writing.

Thumbnail photo via Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

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