Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Betting Model Preview


May 18

The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors will kick off the NBA’s Western Conference Finals tonight from the Chase Center.

The Mavericks stunned the Phoenix Suns in seven games to advance to the WCF, while the Warriors took care of business against the Memphis Grizzlies in six games. Luka Doncic leads the Mavs in scoring through two rounds with 31.5 points per game, while Stephen Curry leads Golden State with 26.9.

The Mavericks won three-of-four regular-season meetings between the clubs.

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors NBA Game Information

Dallas Mavericks (8-5) | Golden State Warriors (8-3)

Date: 05/18/2022 | Time: 09:00 PM

Location: San Francisco, California | Venue: Chase Center

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Warriors -5.5 | Current: Warriors -5

Game Total Open: 215 | Current: 214.5

Moneyline Open: Mavericks +180/ Warriors -225 | Current: Mavericks +176/ Warriors -210

All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Dallas Mavericks +650

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Golden State Warriors +130

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Analysis

The Mavericks have been somewhat of a surprise team in the NBA playoffs through two rounds, but when you have a superstar with the talent that Luka Doncic embodies, it’s feasible that he can get the most out of his team and lead them on a run. With that notion in mind, the Warriors are a special group as well and are probably the deepest remaining team left, which might give the Mavs problems despite their strong defensive mindset. Dallas was able to find success against the Warriors during the regular season (albeit with Draymond Green missing three games) and that should give them some confidence with the Western Conference Finals beginning tonight.

The SportsGrid betting model likes the visiting Mavericks in this Game 1, giving them a 66.11% win probability and a five-star rating on the moneyline tonight. The Warriors are five-point home favorites and we’re heavily backing the Mavericks to cover that number, giving them a five-star rating. Five points isn’t a marginal number and the Mavericks have done a really good job during this postseason of keeping things close with their defense while letting Doncic dominate offensively which is something they will likely turn to once again in this series. That number feels too large for this spot and the Mavs should be looked at to keep this game close, even if they aren’t able to win outright.

In terms of the total, the model presents another five-star rating tonight, with the number set at 214.5 after opening at 215. The model likes the over in this game and when the two clubs met during the regular season, we saw point totals of 181, 222, 208, and 235.

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Dallas Mavericks (66.11%) vs Golden State Warriors (33.89%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: DAL 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: DAL 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars

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