Kentucky Derby Betting History, Trends: Need-To-Know Info For Bettors
Including a relatively arbitrary reason to keep an eye on Smile Happy
We often lean on recent history and trends to give us an idea of how something in the future might play out, but Kentucky Derby bettors might want to be careful using that strategy this year.
The 2022 Derby is just a few days away, and as the world largely returns to normal given all that has happened the last few years, the Run for the Roses is no different. Between the pandemic and controversy, it feels like a long time since we’ve seen a “normal” spring Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Keep that in mind as you get ready to head to the window for this weekend’s race. For example, if you want to blindly bet legendary trainer Bob Baffert for the Derby, well, you can’t. He’s serving a suspension after his horse, Medina Spirit, was at the center of a doping controversy last year. Medina Spirit appeared to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby but eventually had to forfeit the victory.
That came a year after COVID-19 forced the race from spring to the fall and two years after Maximum Security appeared to win the 2019 Kentucky Derby only to be disqualified for interference.
Here’s hoping this year is a little calmer.
As you get set to handicap the race, here are some betting trends and recent history to know.
Recent winners (with betting odds)
2021: Mandaloun 12-1 (Medina Spirit was 15-1)
2020: Authentic 8-1
2019: Country House 30-1 (Maximum Security was 10-1)
2018: Justify 3-1
2017: Always Dreaming 9-2
2016: Nyquist 5-2
2015: American Pharoah 3-1
2014: California Chrome 5-2
2013: Orb 11-2
2012: I’ll Have Another 15-1
Major long shots have been hard to come by in the last decade with the only winner higher than 15-1 being Country House winning despite finishing second in 2019.
It’s not totally unprecedented, though. Mine That Bird went off at 51-1 in 2009 and won, although that came after heavy rains pounded Lexington the night before the race. The muddy track neutralized the field some. In 2005, it was Giacomo who took the roses as a 50-1 long shot.
Post position history
— Post 5 has produced the most winners, runners-up and the highest win percentage. Always Dreaming is the most recent winner from that starting spot. Smile Happy gets the lucky draw Saturday.
— Betting favorite Zandon goes from the No. 10 spot where there’s a 10.6% winning percentage, the second-highest behind the No. 5. It’s been a while, though, with Giacomo being the last to come from that spot to win in 2005.
If history is any indication, you’ll want to steer clear of Barber Road. Already listed as a 30-1 long shot, Barber Road will start out of the 14th position where there hasn’t been a winner since 1961.
Other long droughts include:
No. 2 — 1978
No. 9 — 1972
No. 12 — 1971
Potentially bad news for Happy Jack (30-1), Tiz the Bomb (30-1) and Taiba (12-1), respectively.
Weather
It can’t hurt to take a look at the forecast. Horses aren’t robots, and some of them might perform better or worse, depending on the weather and the track condition.
As of Wednesday afternoon, it doesn’t sound like the weather is going to be a major factor. There are showers in the forecast for most of the day Saturday. While it’s unlikely to be a sun-soaked afternoon, it’s unlikely to be a washout of any sorts. There’s a greater chance of rain Friday, so that could affect the Kentucky Oaks, but there’s not a lot of reason to believe it will soak the track to the point it’s still a factor Saturday.
Weather is fickle, though, and it could change. if the rain becomes a bigger factor, we could be looking at “sloppy” track conditions. According to the National Weather Service archives, there has been “sloppy” conditions four times since 2004.
There aren’t any real obvious trends when it comes to those winners.
2004: Smarty Jones (9-2)
2009: Mine That Bird (50-1)
2010: Super Saver (12-1)
2013: Orb (11-2)
2018: Justify (3-1)
2019: Country House (30-1)
It definitely skews to some longer shots, but wins from Smarty Jones and Justify show the favorites can’t win in the mud, either.
