Kentucky Derby Odds: Horse Bettor Loves White Abarrio’s Path To Roses

Saffie Joseph's horse is 10-1 at Churchill Downs


May 6

When it comes to breaking down the Kentucky Derby, I always phone a friend.

Handicapper Kirk Rockwell is one of the best in the business at betting the horses and he’s a valuable resource for anybody looking to gain a stronger understanding of the industry. Rockwell basically grew up at Pompano Park in South Florida and he’s spent over half his life studying and watching races.

“There are probably 10 horses that can win this,” Rockwell said on Chicken Dinner this week. “All the others are way short. You’re seeing 30-1 on horses that should be 250-1. I honestly think the linesmaker didn’t want to offend anybody. You can’t tell me Happy Jack’s true odds are 30-1. That’s craziness.”

Rockwell told my listeners to hop on White Abarrio at 40-1 odds before the Tampa Bay Derby. The horse currently sits at 10-1 at Churchill Downs and has won four of five career starts heading into Saturday.

“That’s the one I like as my top play,” Rockwell explained. “White Abarrio’s first race was at Churchill Downs back in November. He was part of that big race that a lot of the experts are looking at as the race that set this thing up. And (White Abarrio) hung in there with the best of ’em. He had the lead coming around before Smile Happy pulled away.

“But he’s been working out real strong. He’s been 2% faster than any horse in this field over the last four workouts. That might not sound like a lot, but it makes a big deal. He’s riding like a champion.”

Kentucky Derby odds via Churchill Downs (May 6)
(1) Mo Donegal 10-1
(2) Happy Jack 30-1
(3) Epicenter 7-2
(4) Summer Is Tomorrow 30-1
(5) Smile Happy 20-1
(6) Messier 8-1
(7) Crown Pride 20-1
(8) Charge It 20-1
(9) Tiz the Bomb 30-1
(10) Zandon 3-1
(11) Pioneer of Medina 30-1
(12) Taiba 12-1
(13) Simplification 20-1
(14) Barber Road 30-1
(15) White Abarrio 10-1
(16) Cyberknife 20-1
(17) Classic Causeway 30-1
(18) Tawny Port 30-1
(19) Zozos 20-1
(20) Rich Strike 50-1

Rockwell likes a win bet on the 15 and he’s also using the horse in exotic wagers.

He’s playing White Abarrio, Zandon, Epicenter and Smile Happy (15-10-3-5) in an exacta box and White Abarrio, Zandon, Epicenter, Smile Happy and Charge It (15-10-3-5-8) in a trifecta box.

“My normal exacta box is a $2 ticket with four horses that costs $24,” Rockwell said. “Any of the four horses can finish first or second. For my trifecta, I always do a $1 or $2 trifecta box with five numbers. It’s either going to be $60 or $120 for a race like this. And your group of horses has to win, place and show. That’s how I’m playing the exotics this year.”

If Rockwell’s Kentucky Derby advice comes to fruition, we’ll be partying late into the night.

Thumbnail photo via Jamie Rhodes/USA TODAY Sports Images

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