Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game 3 Betting Model Preview


May 21

The Eastern Conference Finals best-of-seven series shifts from Miami to Boston, with the Celtics looking to take advantage of homecourt tonight from TD Garden.

Game 2 of the series saw the Celtics even things up at one after defeating Miami 127-102. Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 27 points, while Jimmy Butler had a game-high 29 for the Heat.

Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker are both listed as questionable tonight in Game 3 for Miami.

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics NBA Game Information

Miami Heat (9-3) | Boston Celtics (8-4)

Date: 05/21/2022 | Time: 08:30 PM

Location: Boston, Massachusetts | Venue: Td Garden

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Celtics -5.5 | Current: Celtics -6

Moneyline Open: Heat +195/ Celtics -240 | Current: Heat +200/ Celtics -245

Game Total Open: 208 | Current: 208.5

All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Miami Heat +550

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Boston Celtics +185

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Analysis

The Miami Heat are going to need a better first-half effort tonight in Game 3 if they hope to get back ahead in this series. Games 1 and 2 saw the Heat struggle in the first half before making adjustments, but they may not be afforded that luxury on the road. The Celtics outscored Miami by eight points in the first half of Game 1 and 25 points in Game 2, making quick start priority No. 1 for the top seed for Erik Spoelstra, who is one of the best coaches in basketball.

The SportsGrid betting model gives the Boston Celtics a 53.39% win probability for tonight’s Game 3 while the Heat have a five-star rating on the moneyline. The Heat are one of the best third-quarter teams in basketball and are great at making adjustments, meaning we should like the value we’re getting from them tonight on the moneyline at +220. The model is in strong favor of the Heat on the spread, giving them a five-star rating on that as well. The Celtics opened as 5.5-point home favorites and that number has slightly increased to 6.5, and despite their 25-point loss in Game 2, we expect them to play much better tonight, even on the road.

In terms of the total, the model also has a strong lean there, where it’s given the over a five-star rating as well. The first two games of this series have seen 225 and 229 points scored, while tonight’s line is currently set at 208.5, and even if you like the two clubs to play better defensively, that number still seems too low and you should look towards the over as a result.

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Miami Heat (46.61%) vs Boston Celtics (53.39%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: MIA 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: MIA 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars

Check out SportsGrid’s NBA Betting Model for our top picks on spreads, moneyline, and totals on every NBA Playoff Game!

Thumbnail photo via USA TODAY Sports Images

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