Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Betting Model Preview


May 12

The Miami Heat will look to close out their series with the Philadelphia 76ers tonight, as Game 6 shifts back to The City of Brotherly Love.

Jimmy Butler and the Heat blew out the Sixers on Tuesday night by a score of 120-85, which gave Miami a 3-2 series lead. Butler led all scorers with 23 points, while seven Heat players reached double-figures.

Heat guard Kyle Lowry has already been ruled out for this contest, which is noteworthy after he also missed Game 5.

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers NBA Game Information

Miami Heat (7-3) | Philadelphia 76ers (6-5)

Date: 05/12/2022 | Time: 07:00 PM

Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | Venue: Wells Fargo Center

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Heat +2/ 76ers -2 | Current: Heat +2.5/ 76ers -2.5

Game Total Open: 207.5 | Current: 207

Moneyline Open: Heat -110/ 76ers -130 | Current: Heat +116/ 76ers -136

All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Miami Heat +550

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Philadelphia 76ers +3000

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Analysis

The Heat will look to close out their series with the 76ers tonight after a dominating victory in Game 5 that saw them shoot 53.6% from the floor while limiting Philadelphia to just 36.5%. Defense and transition basketball are two of Miami’s biggest strengths which they’ve used to their advantage, especially as the home team.

You can likely expect a hostile environment tonight at the Wells Fargo Center, where the Heat have yet to win a game in either of their meetings in this series. With Philadelphia playing for their season tonight, you have to expect a big effort from their squad, but Miami has plenty of closers that should be able to keep this a tight game down the stretch.

The SportsGrid betting model gives the 76ers a 52.17% win probability for tonight’s Game 6 at home, but there isn’t really a giant lean in terms of the spread or moneyline, where the Heat have a two-star rating on the spread and a one-star rating on the moneyline. These ratings are due in part to question marks on both sides, especially a less-than 100 percent Joel Embiid, who returned for Game 3 after missing the first two contests with an injury.

In terms of the total, the line for tonight is currently set at 207, with the model giving over a five-star rating. So far in this series, we’ve seen point totals of 198, 222, 178, 224, and 205, meaning that the number set for tonight has only gone over in two of the five games. That may give you some pause considering the over, but these two teams have the ability to put up numbers on any given night.

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Miami Heat (47.83%) vs Philadelphia 76ers (52.17%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: MIA 1 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: MIA 2 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars

Check out SportsGrid’s NBA Betting Model for our top picks on spreads, moneyline, and totals on every NBA Playoff Game!

Thumbnail photo via Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

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