Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat Game 5 Betting Model Preview


May 10, 2022

The Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers are squared at two apiece as the teams head back to South Beach to play a crucial Game 5 at FTX Arena.

James Harden and the 76ers were able to even the series at home on Sunday, where they defeated Miami 116-108 in Game 4. Harden had a team-high 31 points in the victory, while Jimmy Butler led the game with 40 for Miami. The 76ers shot a very efficient 54.4% from the floor in Game 4, compared to Miami shooting 46.3%.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat NBA Game Information

Philadelphia 76ers (5-4) | Miami Heat (6-2)

Date: 05/10/2022 | Time: 07:30 PM

Location: Miami, Florida | Venue: FTX Arena

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Moneyline, Spread, Total and Odds

Spread Open: 76ers +3.5/ Heat -3.5 | Current: 76ers +3.5/ Heat -3.5

Game Total Open: 210 | Current: 209.5

Moneyline Open: 76ers +140/ Heat -170 | Current: 76ers +140/ Heat -166

All NBA betting lines, odds and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Philadelphia 76ers +1100

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Miami Heat +650

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Analysis

A lot of people assumed that Miami was going to make quick work of Philadelphia after they took the first two games in this series, but the 76ers have stormed back since the return of Joel Embiid in Game 3. While Embiid’s return was the headline, Harden’s return to form was the story, as he combined for 48 points over the last two games and was a factor as a distributor as well.

Home court has been the answer so far in this series, with the home team winning all four games, so it will be interesting to see if that holds true tonight as the series shifts back to Miami. The Heat will likely need more from Kyle Lowry, who’s struggled so far in the NBA Playoffs as he’s dealt with injuries. The veteran guard was acquired from Toronto for exactly these types of moments.

The SportsGrid betting model gives the Miami Heat a 54.55% win probability for tonight’s Game 5 at home, but there isn’t a ton of confidence in what this game has to offer on either the moneyline or spread. The model gives the visiting 76ers 1.5-stars on the moneyline and two stars on the spread, but there is good news when it comes to the total, where there is a heavy lean.

The total for tonight’s Game 5 is currently set at 209 with slight line movement from 210, with the model giving the Over a five-star rating. So far in this series, we’ve seen point totals of 198, 222, 178, and 224, meaning two of those four games would have gone over the total tonight. With Harden coming back to life over the last two games, it’s not difficult to side with the over once again here tonight.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Philadelphia 76ers (45.45%) vs Miami Heat (54.55%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: PHI 1.5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: PHI 2 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars

Check out SportsGrid’s NBA Betting Model for our top picks on spreads, moneyline, and totals on every NBA Playoff Game!

Thumbnail photo via Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

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