Three Things To Consider Before Betting On The Kentucky Derby
A lot more is warranted than just picking the best name
The biggest day of the year in horse racing is coming up Saturday, but before you enjoy the festivities, the outlandish outfits and the race itself, it’s best to come prepared.
You could just pick the coolest names and call it a day, but there are more advantages to be had over the public. The top horse racing bettors start their research for the Kentucky Derby as early as January, sometimes even as far back as November. During this time, they watch replays of the races throughout the Kentucky Derby qualifying process and determine which horse is capable of winning the “The Run for the Roses.”
Here are three other things to be considerate of before you place your bet on the 148th Kentucky Derby.
Special thanks to NESN Senior Studio Operations Manager Colin Sheehan for his horse racing insight and knowledge contribution.
Environment
It’s very easy to simply look at the odds and determine who you think will win. However, it’s important to focus on the horses behind the names, after all, these are living animals and not unfeeling, inanimate objects. First, it’s important to understand the Kentucky Derby is a race with 3-year-old thoroughbreds, and this will be the longest distance these horses have run in their careers. This will also be the first time these horses will be racing against 19 other horses, and the first time the horses will run in front of a large audience.
Taiba has impressed during the season, winning the Santa Anita Derby in just his second race. However, that means the Kentucky Derby will be the third race in his career. Can Taiba live up to the hype and win the Kentucky Derby? That’s a question that needs consideration, along with, which horses are best suited for the Derby? Early Voting has bowed out of the Kentucky Derby, aiming for the Preakness Stakes as the grand prize.
The Kentucky Derby benefits horses that are able to be forwardly placed. Seven of the last eight winners were in the top three halfway through the race. The second morning-line choice, Epicenter, has shown a strong ability to keep a lead and go in from behind. While the Triple Crown gets the highlight, there’s a reason why it’s a difficult feat to accomplish, each race offers different challenges that need to be assessed.
Risk Tolerance
Similar to when you bet on any event, you must assess how much you?re willing to lose. Betting on horse racing is typically a parimutuel game. The difference between parimutuel betting and fixed odds betting is that in parimutuel betting, you are betting against a pool of other people. As you can imagine, large events like the Kentucky Derby will significantly increase the pool of people you are playing against, but it means an even larger prize pool.
The two most important terms to understand are “exacta” and “trifecta.” In an exacta bet, you have to pick the first- and second-place finishers. A trifecta requires you to choose three horses that will finish first, second and third in the correct order.
If you don’t have a strong opinion on the race, naturally, you’re not likely to throw in a ton of money. On a budget of around $50, you could consider a $1 exacta box using seven or eight horses (seven horses cost $42, eight horses costs $56). Over the last seven years, the average payout of the exacta is around $578.
For those with a higher budget, say around $150, you can consider a trifecta box with seven or eight horses using the same strategy. If you have a strong opinion on one particular horse, you can key that horse on top to finish first, with the horses you selected underneath finishing second or third. This is, of course, very difficult to do, but by keying a horse on top, you can save money and utilize those savings to either bet a higher amount or add more horses underneath. The 50-cent trfiecta over the last seven years has paid out an average of $1660.
Diversity
With the many variables that come with the Kentucky Derby, it’s important to view your options carefully and quickly adjust to public action. Horse owner and Houston furniture magnate Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale is planning on betting $4 million at the Kentucky Derby, and that bet will move odds. While the horses that are placed as the favorites are there for a reason, you always have to be wary of the long-shot that sneaks in.
That’s why it’s important to understand post positions and the historical success of who wins at each post. The No. 7 post produced winners in 2021 and 2018, and in 2022, Crown Pride has longer odds to win the Kentucky Derby. Going back to budget, it’s important to set up a tier list and pick one or two choices out of those tiers to maximize your expected value.
