As much as you’ll probably hate this, I’m ready to buy some Draymond Green stock.
Through three games of the 2022 NBA Finals, the Golden State Warriors utility knife has made more headlines off the court and the Boston Celtics have completely bottled him up. Green became the first player in Finals history to foul out with fewer than five points, five rebounds, five assists and more than 34 minutes played in Game 3.
All that said, Friday night’s Game 4 is a new day and a new opportunity.
American bookmakers are paying close attention to Green’s on-court struggles and they’re well aware that he’s scored four, nine and two points in three games against Boston. So the books lowered his point prop to a postseason-low O/U 7.5, which is numerical disrespect, plain and simple.
Draymond Green point props:
FanDuel O/U 7.5 o-118 ($118 wins $100)
BetRivers O/U 7.5 o-120
DraftKings O/U 7.5 o-120
PointsBet O/U 7.5 o-121
BetMGM O/U 7.5 o-125
Caesars O/U 7.5 o-130 ($130 wins $100)
Much like buying low and betting on Marcus Smart in Game 3, this is an extremely similar situation with Green in Game 4. I love buying the dip and making positions on players at low numbers. Green’s number has been 9.5 for most of his postseason career and he’s averaging 11.9 points over 142 playoff games.
But because he’s underperformed in three Finals games, there’s value on an insanely low number.
Green is the type of player — and person — who thrives when there’s conflict. Celtics fans will be relentless every time he touches the basketball, which in some weird way, might be fuel for his soul.
This Warriors core has experienced so much adversity over the years and I don’t think they’ll be intimidated by the moment or by a 2-1 series deficit. Golden State needs Green to be aggressive on offense and I expect him to rise to the challenge.
It’s not like we need 20 points — we just need eight.
Draymond Green Over 7.5 points -118
Warriors moneyline +145
RECORD: (117-113, +31.9)