Two months into the baseball schedule means it’s the perfect time to talk about MLB MVP. Yes, we?re talking about an almost 2,500-game season, but if you have your eyes on a player and they?re considered a long shot now, hop on it. You?ve likely already lost some value.
Let?s start with the American League. Surprise, surprise, Shohei Ohtani is the favorite to win AL MVP with +260 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. That means risking $100 will win you $260 in profit. The reigning MVP had 15-1 odds to go back-to-back before the season started — quite the jump. In my opinion, I don?t see value in betting Ohtani to win MVP this year. He’s only batting .244 and projected to finish with around 25 home runs after hitting 46 last season. It’s nearly impossible to top his 2021 numbers. His ERA sits at 3.99 — 0.81 runs higher than last season (3.18). Don?t get me wrong: He is still, without a doubt, the best two-way player in the game, but I can think of a few better names I want to put my money on to win this year’s award.
You also must consider the fact that he’s on a team with a player who has the second-best odds to win the same award. Mike Trout’s odds sit somewhere around +400. There is certainly a reason Trout has the second-shortest odds with his 189 wRC+ (89% better than league average). Remember, though, this is a vote-based system. Trout and Ohtani on the same team creates almost more “competition” against each other.
So where do I see value? I wrote a few days ago about the Red Sox leading the league in several offensive categories in the month of May. Their offense is headlined by third baseman Rafael Devers, who currently has 20-1 odds to win the award at DraftKings Sportsbook. He leads the league in hits with 73. He leads Boston in slugging, runs and home runs. A few more weeks of that kind of production and you won’t be the only one looking to lock in a Raffy ticket. Why bet it now? With these odds, you could put down 100 dollars for $2,000 if it wins.
I feel like a bad Boston fan doing this, but it’s Betting 101: Don?t bet with your heart. We have to talk about Aaron Judge. The Yankees outfielder is taking over baseball with dingers right now, leading the league with 19. He had an absurd 12 home runs and 25 RBIs in just the month of May. I’m afraid he may just be getting started, and it also just so happens that his team has the most wins in baseball.
Right now, you can bet Judge to win AL MVP as high as +350 at PointsBet. Before the season started, his odds were 24-1. It’s important to remember we don’t want to chase a bad number. You may have missed the best number on Judge, but there is still value there. Knowing that he finished last season with 39 homers in just 148 games with the best hard-hit rate in baseball, a max exit velocity in the 100th percentile, an expected batting average and slugging percentage in the top 2% of baseball, tells us what he’s doing this year is no fluke.
It’s a contract year for the 30-year-old slugger and he’s looking to earn a huge payday. Is it possible his numbers take a dip? Sure. But he could also continue to hit bombs and his odds get shorter and you lose out on even more value. Guess which one I believe is more likely.
In the National League, Manny Machado and Mookie Betts lead the crew as the favorites. I was (still am) a Manny Machado fan, because how could you not be? In early May, he led the NL in runs scored, batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS, total bases, and WAR. Next thing you know, he’s dealing with ?tennis elbow? and has cooled off. Could he return to his early-May ways? Sure. I do, however, think we will see his odds get longer and other names take his place. So I’ll keep an eye on his price for now.
Enter: Goldy. Paul Goldschmidt hit over .400 in the month of May, racking up the third-most RBI in baseball with 43. He had a hit in all but three of 27 games in the month of May, leading the Cardinals to the fifth-best record in baseball with a 192 wRC+. That, to me, sounds like an MVP, and he’s 7-1 at BetMGM.
Regardless of what name ends up on your MVP ticket, keep an eye on the market. This race will go back and forth all season.
