If you ask somebody to pick the winner of the 2022 Home Run Derby, there’s a great chance the answer is either New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso or Philadelphia Phillies thumper Kyle Schwarber.
There’s absolutely nothing wrong with either choice, as Alonso is the two-time reigning champion and Schwarber has mashed 28 homers in the regular season, three less than league leader Aaron Judge. But because those two candidates are so popular, their odds are super short at the window.
DraftKings Sportsbook is dealing Alonso and Schwarber at +290, so a $100 bet wins $290.
The betting tax is very real on the general public’s favorite combo, which makes the odds more enticing on every other participant. And much like the NBA’s 3-Point Contest — Karl-Anthony Towns won at 13/1 this year — the Home Run Derby is an event where you can dive deep down the board.
I’m eyeing Seattle Mariners rookie phenom Julio Rodriguez to make some noise.
Home Run Derby odds at DraftKings:
Pete Alonso +290 ($100 wins $290)
Kyle Schwarber +290
Ronald Acuña Jr. +500
Juan Soto +600
Corey Seager +800
Julio Rodriguez +1100
Jose Ramirez +1300
Albert Pujols +1600 ($100 wins $1,600)
( You can view the Home Run Derby bracket here )
Rodriguez has a very winnable first-round matchup against Seager before he would undoubtedly meet Alonso in Round 2, assuming the Polar Bear gets by Acuña Jr. early. I just can’t wrap my head around Alonso being +290 and Rodriguez being +1100. Sure, it’s Rodriguez’s first rodeo, but his endurance and stamina will not be an issue and he’s definitely live to pull the upset.
It’s also worth noting that no player has ever won three straight Home Run Derbys.
“Rodriguez is a serious dark horse at that price,” one professional bettor told NESN. “Alonso treats this thing like a damn playoff game and he should definitely be favored. But there’s some serious value on any player standing in Alonso’s way and Rodriguez is my favorite sleeper of the bunch.”
Let’s fade Alonso and roll the dice on Schwarber and Rodriguez to take the trophy.
Kyle Schwarber wins (+290)
Julio Rodriguez wins (+1100)
RECORD: (118-121, +24.7)
