MLB DFS: Dodgers, Phillies Top Optimal Stacks for Wednesday


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Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top 6 projected hitters. Team cost is the average cost of that team’s top six optimal probability players.

Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Dodgers, Phillies

The Los Angeles Dodgers take the throne as tonight’s top stack on our optimal board as they look to continue their success. LA has dominated the plate consistently all season as they rank in the top five in ISO, wOBA, wRC+, Barrel%, and HardHit%. Even though they have struggled striking out a lot lately, their lineup is littered with pieces that can inflict damage on anyone they face. Jose Urena takes the mound for his first start of the season after a stint in the minors, which was full of ups and downs, leaving him with a 7.29 ERA… yikes. Last year, when he was primarily a starter, Urena found himself with a near 6.00 xERA and a strikeout rate of 14.3%. The Dodgers stack is priced as we normally see it. Still, given how Urena probably doesn’t deserve to be in the Majors, we are witnessing a justifiable uptick in expected ownership. Expecting anything out of Urena feels like a stretch, so dealing with the expected high ownership we’ll see on the Dodgers’ stack might be worth it as there’s still value to be had.

The Philadelphia Phillies are near the top of our optimal board as they’ll face off against Josiah Gray and the rest of the Washington Nationals. The Phillies certainly miss their MVP in Bryce Harper, but the lineup has rallied and continued to produce at a high level in his absence. Most notably, Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins have been swinging the bat out of their minds, so they are two names to emphasize when formulating a potential Phillies stack. Gray has been notably inconsistent throughout his highly anticipated but brief MLB career. He already put together a gem against the Phillies this season, pitching six scoreless innings while only allowing a single hit. Still, entrusting Gray to put together a repeat performance might be stretching it. The Phillies’ have been rolling for the past month, so siding with them against a pretty horrible baseball team with an unreliable pitcher on the bump is an intelligent play.

It is worth noting that the Texas Rangers are projected to be near the top of our optimal board. Still, due to questions surrounding the weather forecast in Baltimore tonight, it might be smarter to avoid the game or monitor the situation closely as we get closer to lock. If the game plays, the Rangers have a favorable pitching matchup and have recently been swinging the bats at an above-average level. The stack is affordable and is not expected to be too highly owned, so there is value to be had if the weather forecast clears out.

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