The Open Championship, the golf season’s final major, is upon us, and it’s a special one.
The 150th Open goes back to the home of golf, The Old Course at St. Andrews, this week. In what has been an unforgettable season, both on and off the course, it feels like a perfect ending to a fascinating major season.
Typically, the best players are the ones left standing at The Open. Every winner since 2011 has been at least inside the top 40 of the world golf rankings, with the average ranking of the last eight winners being 12.5.
With that in mind, there’s a good chance this week’s winner comes from within the top 12 of our Open Championship power rankings.
Betting odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
12. Cameron Smith (+2800): Admittedly, there hasn’t been much to love with Smith since he went winner-third at The Players and the Masters. That includes a missed cut at the U.S. Open where he couldn’t buy a putt. The putter has been a problem (negative strokes gained in five of his last seven measured events), but that can turn quick for him. Another big issue is driving accuracy, but that’s not as important at such a wide-open course like this, and he certainly has creative shot-making to work his way around The Old Course.
11. Shane Lowry (+3000): A former Champion Golfer of the Year himself (2019), Lowry has been one of the most consistent players on Tour this season. He’s gained three strokes on approach per round over his last 20 tournaments and has finished 13th or better in seven of his last 10 starts, including the Irish Open. He also gains two strokes on the field in “Windy AF” conditions, per Fantasy National Golf Club.
10. Dustin Johnson (+3500): It’s easy to forget about Johnson, who took the money and joined LIV, but he still could be a factor. He’s got the distance, obviously, and the approach game showed signs of life before jumping ship. Take it with a grain of salt, but he also had his best LIV showing in Portland coming off a 24th-place finish at the U.S. Open. He finished eighth at Royal St. Georges last year, too.
9. Collin Morikawa (+3000): There’s not much to inspire confidence right now with Morikawa, who’s not playing well. He also doesn’t seem to play very well at all when the wind picks up, and putting can be an issue. But he was famously disheartened with his game entering last year’s Open — and then he won it.
8. Will Zalatoris (+3000): His career majors performance can’t be overstated. Zalatoris has six top-10 finishes in eight major tournaments (not counting his WD at The Open last year). The obvious issue with him is The Open history, or lack thereof. The WD would have been his only Open start. But if there’s anyone to blindly back, it might be Zalatoris, who is a shot or two from having two major titles under his belt this season after losing in a playoff at the PGA and missing a playoff by an inch at the U.S. Open.
7. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800): He’s quietly one of the two or three best golfers in the world right now and probably deserves to be higher on the list. He followed up his U.S. Open win with a tie for sixth in Scotland, and his bogey avoidance keeps him in everything. He might not be explosive enough to keep pace if this turns into a birdie-fest, but he might be the favorite if the weather sucks.
6. Xander Schauffele (+1400): Always a popular bet, Schauffele feels ready to finally break through at a major. He won at Hartford before also winning the JP McManus Pro-Am and then the Scottish Open. He’s gained 10.3 strokes total on the field over his last five measured tournaments which don’t count the European stops. He has a second-place finish at The Open in 2018. There’s no real weakness in his game. He’s a big-time box-checker this week.
5. Jon Rahm (+1600): He’s obviously as motivated as ever to become the first Spaniard to win the Open since Seve Ballesteros won in 1988. It feels like he’s finally putting things together both in the short term with a 12th-place finish at Brookline, and in the long term, finishing 11th and then third at The Open after nothing better than 44th in his first three starts. He becomes an even better option if the weather plays up.
4. Scottie Scheffler (+1400): Could be an especially good play in DFS this week after missing the cut at The Scottish Open last week. Prior to that, he was on one of the best runs in recent golf history with two wins in the spring leading into a win at the Masters. He finished second at the U.S. Open after missing the cut at Southern Hills, and he finished eighth in his first Open appearance last year. He’s just so solid.
3. Jordan Spieth (+1600): He might be the most popular pick this week and for good reason. The missed cut at Travelers a few weeks ago was strange, but prior to that, he had three top-10 finishes in six starts, and he just had another top-10 last week at The Scottish Open. He won The Open in 2017 and has five top-10 finishes to his name, including a fourth-place finish at The Old Course in 2015.
2. Justin Thomas (+1600): We’ll be echoing a lot of what we said a week ago when we picked him to win the Scottish Open. But he has every shot in the bag, and his creative eye should suit him well on a unique course like this even (or especially) if he has to deal with weather.
1. Rory McIlroy (+900): He’s the deserved favorite for how well he has played in The Open (winning in 2014), and he comes in with form. From 2014 through 2018, he finished no worse than fifth at The Open. He certainly has the length to bully the course, and it appears he’s fixed his issues with a wedge in his hand. He certainly has the firepower to go super low if the wind stays down, too.
Strokes gained data via Fantasy National Golf Club.
