The Open Championship remains one of the most intriguing tests in golf, and a return to the sport’s birthplace makes this year — the 150th playing — a must-see event.
The Old Course at St. Andrews hosts the Open once again this season, and early-week indications are the course is in prime condition. If the wind picks up, it will be a wild week, and if the weather stays down, we might see scoring records fall.
That makes trying to predict what’s going to happen next to impossible. In the past, the cream usually rises to the top for The Open, but we have seen some long shots take home the Claret Jug. The last time St. Andrews hosted, Zach Johnson went off at 80-1 and took it down.
So, while it still feels most likely a big dog gets it done, let’s look at a few long shots — 50-1 and longer — who wouldn’t shock us if they brought home the hardware.
Betting odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (as of Monday afternoon).
Hideki Matsuyama (50-1): Looking at the trends for Open champions, especially at The Old Course, there’s an undeniable connection to Augusta National. Matsuyama, the 2021 Masters champion, obviously has that. Collin Morikawa last year aside, Open winners tend to have a good deal of experience in the tournament, and Matsuyama is making his eighth start. The form is also pretty solid with Matsuyama using the round of the tournament (65) to vault into fourth place at the U.S. Open. He did, however, miss the cut at the Scottish Open.
Keith Mitchell (80-1): He’s playing well with three top-20 finishes leading into a 36th-place tune-up in Scotland. He’s walloping it off the tee and for the most part has been pretty accurate with the driver. He also has been solid with a wedge in his hand, gaining 2.3 strokes per round from 75 to 100 yards in his last five tournaments. Given the distance and the fast, firm fairways, that could be pretty significant. Here’s the best part about Mitchell: He’s got strong local ties with his sister going to school in St. Andrews and his father being a member of the Royal and Ancient. For someone getting his first pro look at the Old Course, he should feel at home.
Bryson DeChambeau (130-1): Look, he sucks right now. He has sucked on links golf and in the Open and all of that. No arguments there. But 130-1 for not only a former major champion, but a thoughtful golfer who happens to hit the ball 360 yards off the tee. That would be good enough to drive a handful of greens and maybe more if he gets a helping wind of some kind. He kind of has to thread the needle for it to happen, and nothing in his recent form says it’s very likely, but it’s a tempting lottery ticket.
Danny Willett (150-1): Some relatively smart people have pointed out the similarities between St. Andrews and Augusta National. While a baked-out Old Course certainly plays different than Augusta, both are hilly pieces of property that offer odd angles. That Zach Johnson has won at both feels like minor evidence supporting that claim. As does Willett. He has his Masters win, of course, and he finished tied for sixth at the Old Course in 2015. He also won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2021, a tournament that is played on the Old Course (among others). With two top-10s and three top-30s, he might be a better placement pick, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him hanging around Sunday.
