Patriots Odds: Three Reasons Why Mac Jones Will Fly Over Passing Prop

Jones should improve on an impressive rookie year


Jul 8, 2022

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones burst onto the scene as a rookie last season and captained his club to a 10-7 record and a berth in the NFL postseason.

Jones threw for 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns while completing almost 68% of his passes. The former Alabama star was even more accurate than initially advertised and never lost control of the huddle.

That said, Jones definitely was hindered by a lack of aggressive play calling for most of the season, as the Patriots coaching staff never asked too much of him.

PointsBet Sportsbook is dealing Jones’ passing prop at O/U 3,849.5 yards this season. So, assuming Jones plays in all 17 games for New England, he’ll need to average 227 yards per game to get there. He averaged 223.6 last season, and that includes a 2-for-3, 19-yard performance in the blizzardy wind-storm game in Buffalo.

Here are three reasons you should bet the “Over” on Mac Jones in 2022:

1. New England will be trailing in more games this season
Every American sportsbook has the Patriots as sizable underdogs to make the playoffs. That’s because the Bills and Dolphins are both better inside the AFC East and New England’s schedule from Week 12 to the finish is a nightmare. That’s not to say the Pats can’t compete, but they’ll need to throw more. Games down the stretch against Minnesota, Arizona and Las Vegas are going to be shootouts, and Jones can easily rack up 300 yards in all three of those contests.

2. DeVante Parker gives Mac Jones another much-needed weapon
Jakobi Meyers led the Patriots with 83 receptions last season, followed by Kendrick Bourne with 55 and Hunter Henry with 50. To say that’s an underwhelming pass-catching group is an understatement. Parker is clearly the team’s No. 1 receiver, and if he can stay on the field, Jones’ life will be a lot easier. When Parker started 14 games for Miami back in 2019, he hauled in 72 balls for 1,202 yards. That’ll do.

3. Jones is extremely crucial to offensive success
I’m not willing to jump on the “Mac Jones for MVP” bandwagon, but for my money, he’s the most important player to the team’s success. So let him cook! I expect Bill Belichick and whoever is calling the offensive plays to take the handcuffs off and let Jones operate with more freedom. Also, the first-round selection of Cole Strange will only solidify the pass blocking, and if the Patriots continue to establish the bread-and-butter running attack, Jones will be dangerous in the play-action game.

Mac Jones “Over” 3,849.5 passing yards (-115)

RECORD: (118-121, +24.7)

Thumbnail photo via Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports Images

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