Patriots Odds: Why New England Offense Worth Betting On In 2022

Damien Harris and Hunter Henry should get even better

by

July 25

The countdown to the 2022 NFL season has begun, and shops are already taking bets on teams and players across the league.

If you’re a Patriots fan and want to get some preseason action in, you’re in luck with plenty of options to choose from.

Bookmakers at DraftKings have the Patriots favored to miss the playoffs with odds of -200. It will be difficult for New England to make it to the postseason with how much talent there is in the AFC and we can’t ignore the number of questions surrounding the team. To start, there is still no replacement for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Matt Patricia has been named the offensive line coach and Joe Judge is listed as an offensive assistant and quarterbacks coach, but it’s a non-traditional approach that I don’t believe sets Mac Jones up for success in his second season.

There is also the concern about what the secondary will look like now that J.C. Jackson is with the Los Angeles Chargers and the fact that New England has one of the tougher schedules in the league. The Patriots go from having the eighth-easiest schedule last season, to the eighth-toughest this season. With all that said, I’m not risking $200 to win $100. On the flip side, if you are confident they’ll make the playoffs, you can grab a ticket now at +160. I wouldn’t necessarily advise that with the apprehension I have about the team, but we are talking about Bill Belichick and I do have a lot of faith in Jones. So I can see how the plus money is enticing.

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Speaking of the AFC, you have the option to stick with basic futures, including a team to win its conference, division, and/or the Super Bowl. With the Patriots, in particular, they’re long shots to win the AFC at 25-1. They also have the third-longest odds to win the AFC East at +500 and a 50-1 number to win the Super Bowl. Clearly, the books don’t see a very high ceiling for New England this season. However, if you do think the team performs above expectations, you can get the Patriots at a good price now to finish second in the AFC East behind the Bills at +240 with the “Straight Forecast” market on DraftKings. Still, that’s not enough value for me to get on board.

These are all options, but the plays I like are in the prop market. You can bet an individual player’s totals and DraftKings also gives you the option to combine them in the Team Specials market. One bet where I think both numbers are too low: Damien Harris over 8.5 rushing touchdowns and Hunter Henry over 5.5 receiving touchdowns at +275. Harris finished tied for the second most rushing touchdowns in the NFL last season with 15. Henry, meanwhile, had the most red-zone targets on the team last season, finishing with nine touchdowns. Remember both totals need to be reached for this bet to hit, which is why you are getting a good price. I see value with odds of +275, which means you’re risking $100 to win $275.

Another interesting bet I like: If you think the Pats score more points than they did last season, you can bet them to score over 385.5 regular-season points with odds of +100. They scored 462 points in 2021 (sixth-most in the NFL). That’s a bet I would make as well. Regardless of how many games they win, the Patriots have enough talent on offense to match the success they had last season on the scoreboard — especially with Jones having a full season under his belt and a new weapon in the passing game with DeVante Parker.

These are just some of the many options you can wager on before the Week 1 kickoff. Don’t forget to shop around for the best numbers available and remember that you don’t need to bet right now. You can always wait and keep an eye on the market to see how it fluctuates. It will be a long season with plenty of action.

Thumbnail photo via Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports Images

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