If you’re not familiar with pitcher win bets, it’s time for an education.
It’s a relatively new Major League Baseball betting market that siphons heavy betting juice out of wagers on the game’s premier pitchers. But the pitcher you bet must get a W in the scorebook. If the game goes to extras, you’re cooked. If the bullpen blows it, too bad. Thems the breaks.
You can, however, alleviate serious risk if you utilize pitcher win bets the right way.
Shohei Ohtani starts for the Los Angeles Angels late Thursday night against the Texas Rangers. PointsBet Sportsbook opened the Halos moneyline -210 and is now dealing -230. Meanwhile, PointsBet’s pitcher win market has Ohtani -115 while prices are even better at Caesars (+100) and DraftKings (+105).
Why bet an ace at -230 on the moneyline when you can take him +105 to record a win?
If the Angels lose the game, you’re down $230 on a $100 dollar moneyline wager, but if you dive inside the pitcher win pool and Ohtani fails to deliver, you’re only down $100. It’s truly an exercise in maximizing money and minimizing risk, two staples of sports betting.
Let’s take a pitcher like Tampa Bay Rays ace Shane McClanahan, the American League Cy Young favorite equipped with a 1.76 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. The powerful southpaw is generally a -170 favorite ($170 wins $100) or higher and he’s been at least -170 in 10 of his 19 starts this season per StatFox.
The problem for McClanahan moneyline backers is the Rays are 12-7 when he takes the ball, so he’s made bettors only 1.6 units on the campaign. Why? Because Tampa Bay has lost at -170, -180, -180 and -200. Juice adds up quickly on expensive moneylines, especially considering that oddsmakers make you pay a premium on pitchers like McClanahan, Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
If you’ve blindly bet McClanahan’s pitcher win options instead, you’re up over 4 units despite a 10-9 record. When you’re routinely winning at +105, +115, +125 and mostly losing at plus money, the math is certainly in your favor. And then there’s the occasional W at a huge price. McClanahan was +180 to record a win against Ohtani in Anaheim back in May and he took care of business.
Pitcher win bets make it much more affordable to bet on marquee arms.
“I can’t bet pitcher wins in Vegas and can’t get down much money in the states that offer it,” one professional bettor told NESN. “But it’s definitely an interesting market for the casual player.
“The biggest mistake a new bettor makes is not understanding the importance of minimizing juice,” the bettor continued. “Laying -200, -300 on regular-season baseball games is a quick way to go broke. It’s hard enough to win at -110. It gets substantially harder when you’re laying big chalk.
“Getting a guy like Gerrit Cole to win -130 instead of laying Yankees -300 is very enticing.”
