Close games are an inevitable part of baseball and often the difference between making the postseason and enjoying an extended offseason. Of the ten playoff teams from 2021, only three finished with a losing record in one-run games, and all but one of those teams won at least 20 one-run games on their way to the postseason. Finding a way to nail-biting victories is an indicator of long-term success.
As such, we’ll be keeping a running tally on which teams have the most one-run wins throughout the season.
Seattle MarinersRecord in One-Run Games: 25-14 (1-1 this week)
It’s an interesting perspective, but the Seattle Mariners probably wouldn’t be in a playoff spot if not for their exceptional play in one-run games. The M’s are one game up in the American League Wild Card race, and 42.4% of their wins have come by a single score. Seattle went 4-3 over the past seven days, salvaging a 1-1 record in close games.
The Mariners ended the week with the fifth-worst batting average in the majors (.216) but still managed to score the eighth-most runs thanks to swatting 12 long balls. It’s a delicate balance to maintain, and the scales could tip away from them as production balances with output. Thankfully, their pitching has been their most valuable asset this season, and they should continue to keep them in games.
Seattle is entering a critical stretch of their schedule, with their next four series coming against teams with sub .500 records. We could see wins pile up for the Wild Card contenders, inevitably including more one-run victories.
Toronto Blue JaysRecord in One-Run Games: 22-16 (1-2 this week)
After weeks of not playing in one-run games, the Toronto Blue Jays finished the week 1-2 in close games. That’s analogous to their overall performance, with the Wild Card hopefuls dropping four of seven throughout the week.
Toronto’s bats have maintained their elite production. The Blue Jays scored 29 runs since our last check-in, compiling a .753 on-base plus slugging percentage, aligning with their season-long average. However, inconsistent pitching continues to be the limiting factor for the Jays. Toronto allowed the ninth-most walks and hits per inning pitched over the last week, giving up the third-most home runs and fifth-most runs.
The Jays just need their pitching to be average to get them to the postseason, but that hasn’t been the case recently. The pack is starting to close in on them in the Wild Card race, and the Blue Jays cannot afford many more one-run losses if they hope to reclaim a postseason berth.
New York YankeesRecord in One-Run Games: 21-15 (0-2 this week)
Playing flawless baseball throughout a 162-game season is impossible, and we’ve seen the pendulum swing for the New York Yankees over their current schedule. The Bronx Bombers went 1-5 this week, including 0-2 in games decided by a run.
Pitching has let New York down in the worst way, with Yankees pitchers combining for a 6.00 earned run average over the last seven days. The Mariners trounced the AL East leaders at home, scoring seven or more runs in two of the three games. The Yankees followed that up by getting swept by the St. Louis Cardinals, giving up 12 runs in the series finale. Still, no one can hand with New York offensively. Aaron Judge and company are coming off back-to-back nine-run efforts, padding their MLB lead in runs scored.
Given their unstoppable offense, it won’t be long until the pendulum starts swinging back towards more victories. If they maintain their current form through the batting order, that could mean fewer one-run wins as teams struggle to keep pace with the Yankees’ torrid pace.
