MLB DFS: Freddy Peralta, Bailey Falter Top Leverage Pitchers for Friday

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PERALTA IS LOOKING TO ELEVATE

Freddy Peralta sits atop the pitcher leverage board for tonight’s slate as he faces the Chicago Cubs. Peralta appears to be full-go for the rest of the season as he pitched back-to-back games with a pitch count north of 90 in each outing after spending two months on the IL. His strikeout rate has not been great, as it currently sits at 19.5% over four outings in August, whereas his career rate is above 32%. It would be a significant stretch to assume that he just “lost” his stuff, so inevitably we can anticipate seeing his K% rise as he gets more work. He still has limited power well this year while having an expected ERA and FIP around 3.50, so we’re essentially a strikeout resurgence away from him returning to the top of the optimal board.

Could that resurgence begin tonight? The Cubs have not been swinging the bats well over the past week, where they see them in the bottom five in wOBA and wRC+ during that stretch. There is nothing in their ISO, Barrel%, and HardHit% lately to give us any reason to believe they could just be getting a few bad breaks. This offense has struck out at about a 23% rate for August, which could be enough to ignite the strikeout production that is a sleeping giant. Peralta has a desirable price at $8,700 on DraftKings, and given the leverage scenario and lack of strong value pitchers, this play offers the highest upside of any play under $9,000. 

FALTER IS HOPING TO HOLD IT DOWN

We are also seeing Bailey Falter making a noticeable appearance on the leverage board as he’ll get the start for the Phillies with Zack Wheeler heading to the IL. Falter will be facing the Pittsburgh Pirates and already has another start under his belt against him, where he went six innings, allowing two runs and striking out eight. He also held the Mets to one run and two hits over six innings last week. If we can get a comparable performance to either of those outings, his $6,700 salary will look favorable.

Falter doesn’t have the best numbers, given that he is the Phillies’ sixth or seventh starter, but as previously mentioned, he is capable of a strong outing. Over the past two weeks, we have not seen great production from the Pirates as they rank in the bottom six in wOBA, wRC+, and runs scored with a strikeout rate of 25.5%. Falter has the tools to toss a serviceable outing, making it worth taking a shot on him at $6,700. It is worth noting that Falter will be able to feed off of the adrenaline in Citizens Bank Park with Bryce Harper’s return.