MLB DFS: Joe Musgrove, Alek Manoah Top Leverage Pitchers for Tuesday


August 9

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Pitchers seeing the most leverage: Joe Musgrove, Alek Manoah

Joe Musgrove finds himself near the top of the pitcher’s leverage board ahead of his matchup against the San Francisco Giants. Musgrove followed up putting pen to paper on his new contract by getting shelled by the Colorado Rockies, and they weren’t even playing in Coors! He has still had a strong season for the Padres as his expected ERA and FIP are in the low 3.00-range with respectable strikeout production at 25%. Tonight will be Musgrove’s third outing against San Francisco this season, and he has been spectacular in the first two starts of a combined 14 innings where he didn’t allow a run and only surrendered five hits. 

The Giants have been pretty underwhelming this season and have recently played themselves out of a Wild Card spot. Over the past two weeks, they haven’t offered too much offensively, ranking in the league’s bottom half in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ with a bottom ten strikeout rate. Musgrove is priced at $9,600 on DraftKings, and we expect him to see roughly 5%-7% ownership. Given his recent overwhelming success against the Giants, backing him once more in a leverage spot is a solid play with immense upside, especially if you are not confident in some of the arms priced north of $10,000. 

Alek Manoah joins Musgrove near the top of the optimal board as he’ll face off against the Baltimore Orioles. How about the Orioles? They have been a blast to watch and root for over the past month and a half as they have gone 22-10 since July 1 and have been pretty profitable for DFS players along the way. They haven’t slowed down either, as over the past two weeks, they have been in the top nine in baseball in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. 

Manoah has had a strong season registering a 2.45 ERA despite having his xERA nearly a whole point higher. His strikeout production was not what we were hoping for going into the season, but he has reduced his walks and has been strong in limiting power to compensate for the lack of strikeouts. One of his best starts of the season came against the Orioles, where he had a one-hit bid through six innings while striking out seven. Manoah will be a little underpriced tonight at below $9,000. With his minimal ownership projection, this is shaping up to be a low-risk, high-reward play against an opponent he has already dominated. However, being wary of backing a pitcher against this fun and surging team also makes sense, but there is value with Manoah. 

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