MLB DFS: Phillies, Tigers Top Leverage Stacks for Wednesday


August 10

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Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

Team stacks seeing the most leverage: Phillies, Tigers

The Philadelphia Phillies are the top team stack on our leverage board ahead of their matchup against Sandy Alcantara and the Miami Marlins. Philly has been on an absolute roll over the past two weeks, winning 11 of their past 12 and most recently dropped 36 runs on the Nationals in a four-game sweep. It certainly helps to have the Nationals as your opponent, but dropping that amount of runs on any major league club is still impressive. They are loaded with damage-doing pieces in their lineup, with Rhys Hoskins and J. T. Realmuto being two names of note, especially as they both are scorching at the plate right now. Also, Nick Castellanos looks like he’s finally figured it out.

Alcantara is a tier above the caliber of pitcher the Nationals would trot out. He’s currently the NL Cy Young Award favorite. Sandy’s excellence doesn’t need to be elaborated on, but what will hurt the Phillies the most is that they will not have more than an inning, if they are lucky, of the Marlins bullpen as no pitcher goes deeper into games more consistently than Alcantara. In three previous matchups against Alcantara, the Phillies tallied two runs in each game off him, showing that they have seen the ball better out of his hands compared to most teams. Getting the Phillies’ stack at minimal ownership and at a fair price provides value if you look for the Phils to continue their offensive surge. Ultimately, it is hard to envision Alcantara getting absolutely shelled and/or pitching less than seven innings.

The Detroit Tigers are seated right behind the Phillies on the leverage board as they are slated to face off against Aaron Civale and the Cleveland Guardians. Make no mistake about it, the Tigers are nothing short of a horrible offensive. Over the past two weeks, they rank last in wOBA, last in wRC+, and second to last in ISO. They have struck out 25% of their at-bats and have the second lowest BB% during that same stretch.

Civale will return to the majors for his first start in over a month. Civale was not good in his first stint in the majors this year. Over 12 starts, he compiled a 6.17 ERA while not fairing great in the power and strikeout departments. Civale only had one outing this year where he didn’t allow a run, and it just so happened to be against the Detroit Tigers! Just what we love to see. The Tigers stack is dirt cheap and should come in minimally owned, so if you do not like the odds of Civale tossing two gems to the same team in one season, then taking the Tigers stack wouldn’t be the worst idea. However, don’t expect an offensive explosion as they have only scored five or more runs in two out of their last 14 games.

Thumbnail photo via Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

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