Just like that, everything has changed regarding the public betting opinion on 2022-23’s NBA Rookie of the Year.
Oklahoma City Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren will miss the entire 2022-23 NBA season with a Lisfranc injury to his right foot. The No. 2 overall pick in June’s draft was injured during the CrawsOver Pro-Am event last weekend. The injury won’t just change things for OKC but has had a significant impact on the betting market for Rookie of the Year.
Sportsbooks have almost universally pulled him from the running, with BetMGM having him listed at +375 odds to win the award before the injury, the second best in the class.
Here is a glimpse into how the Rookie of the Year odds changed, per BetMGM data analyst John Ewing.
Paolo Banchero: +350 to +200
Keegan Murray: +650 to +500
Jaden Ivey: +650 to +550
Jabari Smith Jr.: +600 to +600
Benedict Mathurin: +1100 to +1000
Given the nature of the award (most winners were drafted within the first five picks of the draft), there isn’t a huge field of viable contenders. That is something the betting public is very clear on.
Of the bets placed on Rookie of the Year, 66.6% of the tickets and 76.5% of the handle have been placed Banchero, Murray, and Ivey. Banchero leads the world with 40.9% of the handle, while Ivey leads all rookies, commanding 29.1% of the total bets.
Holmgren commanded 13% of the tickets and 10.1% of the handle prior to his injury, meaning the field has been narrowed significantly. It looks as though it’s just a matter of bettors picking the right choice among Banchero, Ivey, and Murray.
