NFL Odds 2022: Three Bets To Make On Aaron Rodgers-Led Packers

Will Rodgers still thrive without a top-tier target?


August 25, 2022

With the NFL preseason in full swing, now is the best time to grab great value on bets in the futures market. We’ve talked at great length about the New England Patriots’ season outlook on NESN’s The “Ultimate Betting Show” and “Lunch Line.”

Now, let’s examine how to bet on the NFC North. We’ll focus on the revamped, Davante Adams-less Green Bay Packers. Here are three ways that I’m going to bet on Aaron Rodgers and company.

Rodgers Regression?
For nearly two decades the Packers franchise has been led by Rodgers under center. The last two seasons have ended abruptly with home playoff losses in which Green Bay was favored. Individually, Rodgers experienced the ultimate success winning back-to-back league MVP awards. I’m betting against another MVP season from Rodgers now. Adams is one of the greatest Packers wide receivers of all time. Last season alone, Adams accounted for 123 grabs, over 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns. His departure to the Las Vegas Raiders will not only hurt the team, but it will hurt Rodgers as well. In the offseason, the Packers did little to address the major void at the position. Rodgers will finish below his season projections on DraftKings and that’s why I’m betting the Under 4,050.5 pass yards and 31.5 pass touchdowns.

NESN 360 in-article asset

Asking More of Allen
Although I’m fading Rodgers putting up MVP-caliber numbers again this season, I do think Allen Lazard will benefit immensely from Adams’ departure. Lazard is heading into his fifth season with the Packers, and this will be his first as the top target. Lazard is a big-bodied physical presence who Rodgers already has a rapport with. In a complementary role last season, Lazard put up respectable numbers. He had 40 receptions, 513 yards and eight touchdowns. Now with a bigger role, I’m betting the Over on all of Lazard’s projected numbers available on DraftKings: 56.5 catches, 750.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receiving touchdowns.

My last bet on the Packers is betting against them at home in Week 4 when the Patriots travel to Lambeau Field. Although I don’t believe Rodgers will have another MVP performance this season, I think Green Bay may fare better in the playoffs. Not having weapons on the outside will force the Pack to run the ball and play a more time-of-possession style offensively. That should bode well come playoff time, but in Week 4 against New England, I think two things will be in play. First, Rodgers will still be developing chemistry with his new receiving core. Conversely, I believe the Patriots’ continuity will be an advantage at that time of the season. Lambeau Field also isn’t very daunting in October. I’ll bet against the Packers here and take the Patriots on the moneyline +195 available at most sportsbooks.   

Thumbnail photo via Raj Mehta/USA TODAY Sports Images

Picked For You