What Will It Take For Red Sox To Defy Odds, Reach MLB Playoffs?
The Red Sox are now 250-1 to win the World Series
It’s truly now or never for the Red Sox in their quest to make the postseason.
The season is more than four months old, and Boston has yet to really turn things on for a sustained period of time. The Sox open a homestand Tuesday night against the Blue Jays, and they have considerable ground to make up not only on Toronto but a host of teams standing between them and an American League playoff spot.
In fact, 31 of Boston’s final 40 games are against teams ahead of them in the division or wild-card standings. A season-saving run of dominance will have them right back in the mix, but that’s easier said than done for a team that has struggled to beat good teams, as evidenced by a 39-49 record against teams with winning records.
Here’s what the Sox are up against entering Tuesday:
The advanced numbers paint an admittedly grim picture for the Red Sox. FanGraphs currently gives Alex Cora’s club a 6.4% chance to get into the dance. Baseball Reference is even less bullish with the Sox currently 3.3% to get in, a number that was cut in half over the last seven days.
If all breaks right for the Red Sox, the path is there. Baseball Reference also has a “90% confidence” standings projection with best- and worst-case scenarios for each team. According to the projections, Boston’s best-case finish would have them at 84-78. If the rest of the teams they’re chasing limp to the finish line in their own regards, the Red Sox probably would get in alongside Toronto and the Seattle Mariners.
That’s certainly asking a lot, but we probably thought the same thing in reverse going back to 2011 when the Red Sox looked destined for the postseason. We all know how that turned out.
Those who believe in the Red Sox could get some solid value in the betting market right now. DraftKings Sportsbook has them at +700 to just reach the playoffs and all the way up to 250-1 to win the World Series. In fact, if you think the Sox have a miracle run in them to get in, you might as well grab a little bit of that World Series number, too, as long as it may seem. If they get hot enough to reach the playoffs, they’d be hot enough to win the whole thing at that point.
It does feel like there’s a lot working against Boston right now, though. Nathan Eovaldi, who has done his best work when the games matter most, looks destined for the injured list. Chris Sale obviously is done for the season. John Schreiber, a bullpen godsend, might be hitting a wall after his incredible work up until this point. At the plate, Xander Bogaerts probably isn’t right physically, either, and the Red Sox themselves admit the offense isn’t clicking as it should be.
It won’t be easy, but for now, at least, the Red Sox can take solace in the fact it’s still in front of them. Now, they just need to go on a run that would be talked about for years.
