49ers-Broncos DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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September 25, 2022

Free up-to-date projections and optimization tools for all NFL DFS slates are available at DailyRoto.com. For bookmarking purposes, optimal probability simulations and expected ownership projections will be available on a continuous link here.MULTIPLIER OPTIONS:

Deebo Samuel is atop the board regarding the projected point total and will be the most expensive option on the slate. We know how Kyle Shanahan loved to run the offense through Deebo last year with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, which should solidify his role tonight and going forward. With his dual-threat upside, he could easily find the ball in his hands a minimum of 12 times which is tough to say about many other people on this slate.

Both quarterbacks warrant consideration to be played at the multiplier, but both also give us trepidation about playing them at all. Simply put, no one has thought that Russell Wilson has looked good so far as a Bronco, and he is not being put in positions to succeed. Garoppolo has never been one to go scorched earth, given Shanahan’s willingness to run the ball, but he will still have some opportunities to rack up DFS points. We don’t currently project either quarterback to eclipse 40% ownership, which is excellent value. 

Two Denver positional players to potentially target here could be Courtland Sutton and Javonte Williams. Even though they still are relatively expensive plays, Sutton has built a solid rapport with Wilson thus far, where he has 18 targets over two games with the rest of the receiver room banged up. Although Williams is in a split backfield, his role is solidified, and he offers a high PPR upside via the passing game. 

FLEX TARGETS:

Jeff Wilson Jr. is in line to see a substantial workload as the RB1 tonight, with a reasonable salary of $8000. Last week, even though it was a blowout, he only saw 40% of the team’s rushing attempts. The Niners are run first, but is 40% sustainable assuming it’s a close game and they aren’t going to tally 45 carries? Is even 50% to turn optimal? Anything is possible, but between Deebo and the backup running backs filling in for Tyrion Davis-Price, there could be safer plays to make than Wilson Jr. Jordan Mason, in particular at $1000, certainly could be a factor to see some touches given uncertainly around recent signee Marlon Mack’s readiness. 

Melvin Gordon has a solidified role in the Broncos offense and likely will see around ten carries and a target or two potentially. We know his upside isn’t the same as we see with Williams. Still, Gordon certainly can make some noise and find the endzone to fly up the optimal board with only a $6200 salary that would infuse financial flexibility. 

Brandon Aiyuk was directed a third of the 49ers’ Week 2 targets and again will be a focal point of this offense. At $7000, his price is enticing, but we project for his ownership to approach 50%, which isn’t ideal. Given that the 49ers would like to continue running the ball, we cannot ignore that George Kittle will enter the fold and should command a 20% target share, limiting Aiyuk’s ceilings. Jauan Jennings is a cheaper play who will be on the field a ton, as well as the WR3.

The Broncos’ injury situation in the receiver room very well could offer some cheap plays. The slate could turn to some of these guys if Jerry Jeudy or KJ Hamler cannot go. Kendall Hinton saw a 76% Week 2 snap share, so he could be one guy to keep an eye on at $2200. Surely the public would be on him as well, so turning to Tyrie Cleveland could be an option at $2800 without the same ownership. 

George Kittle returns and immediately takes the TE1 spot having the ability to very easily turn optimal. Ross Dwelly still could see a few looks, but it is not worth it at $4800. The Broncos tight-end room offers cheaper value. Still, the 49ers defended opposing tight ends exceptionally well in 2021 and so far this season, only allowing a combined 11 yards over two games to the position.

We have seen an unhealthy amount of fullback touchdowns this season, so discount one of the best fullbacks in the sport in Kyle Juszcyzk at your pleasure.

Thumbnail photo via Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

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