Best Ways To Bet Remaining Games Of Red Sox-Rangers Series

The Boston Red Sox continue their four-game set with the Texas Rangers this weekend at Fenway Park, as they make a last-ditch attempt at grabbing an American League wild-card spot.

Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook list the Red Sox to make the playoffs at +2500 while they?re a steep -10000 to miss the playoffs. Risking $100 would win you $2,500 if the Red Sox made the playoffs. As enticing as that is, the implied odds are less than 4% for Boston to do so.

The best bet in my opinion is wagering on Boston from game to game. After a 9-8 win for Boston in Game 1 of the series with the Rangers on Thursday, they?ll look to build on the momentum Friday.

Friday: Dallas Keuchel vs. Nick Pivetta
Pivetta has seen some significant negative regression after a stellar May (2.11 ERA) and June (2.25 ERA). Texas is one of the lineups that had to face Pivetta back in May and they managed just one earned run on three hits off of him in seven innings. I don’t know if we will see as dominant of a performance from Pivetta, but I definitely give Boston the starting pitching advantage.

Keuchel is making just his second start with the Rangers after starting the season with the White Sox, where he had a 7.88 ERA after giving up 33 runs (28 earned runs) in 32 innings. The Rangers are the lefty’s third club in 2022, as he lasted four games with the Diamondbacks after posting a 9.64 ERA in 18 2/3 innings. This is another good spot for Boston to show its dominance against lefties. The Sox have the fifth-best batting average since Aug. 1, hitting almost .300. Boston also ranks sixth in OPS against southpaws in that stretch. There’s no value in laying -190 on the moneyline (risking $190 to win $100) especially with both bullpens gassed. Grabbing Boston on the first-five run line (-0.5) which you can get around -130 is the best play here.

The strikeout market is another place I do see value with Keuchel?s strikeout rate being in the bottom 4% of the league. However, the Sox have the fifth-highest strikeout percentage against southpaws since Aug. 1, so I only have a lean there and will wait to see where the market opens.

Saturday: TBD vs Brayan Bello
Bello toes the rubber for Saturday’s match in his sixth major league start. Boston has yet to win any of his starts and his numbers may not impress as they did in Triple-A, but it’s way too early to blindly short the rookie. Bello and the Sox saw significant market respect in his last start against the Twins, with Minnesota opening as -160 favorites on the moneyline and the market moving the line all the way down to a pick’em. I expect that trend to continue, as Bello’s talent and stuff have already impressed. His advanced stats show that his 7.27 ERA should be much lower, and he’s already showing an elite groundball rate with swing-and-miss stuff equal to the top pitchers in the majors. With the Rangers having the fifth-highest K rate since Aug. 1, Bello?s K prop is one play I will be keeping an eye on.

Sunday: Dane Dunning vs Kutter Crawford
Crawford has been inconsistent this season. The Boston righty posted a 2.57 ERA in July but followed that up with 7.58 ERA in August. His expected ERA (4.60) is close to a full run better than his ERA of 5.47 on the season, which means we should see some positive regression to close out the season.

Right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning had his best month of the season so far in August but that’s with a 3.62 ERA. Dunning’s expected ERA (4.76) is even worse than his season long ERA of 4.51 and he has a walk rate, K rate, and barrel rate all in the bottom 32nd percentile of MLB. I give the edge to the offenses in this game and will likely lean over on the total. If bats look anything like they did in the series opener with the teams combining for 17 runs on 26 hits, the over will likely be bet up early so try and get ahead of the market.