Canelo Álvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin will run it back for a third time Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The rivals fought to a controversial draw back in September 2017, and Álvarez won the rematch in September 2018 via majority decision. Both of those battles were fought at middleweight (160 pounds). Now, four years since their most recent showdown, they’ll square off for the undisputed super middleweight championship (168 pounds).
The trilogy bout marks the first time Golovkin (42-1-1) will compete at super middleweight, whereas Álvarez (57-2-2) is returning to the weight class after moving up to light heavyweight (175 pounds) and losing to Dmitry Bivol in May.
The loss to Bivol was Álvarez’s first since falling to Floyd Mayweather Jr. back in September 2013, the only other blemish on Álvarez’s record. Golovkin is coming off a four-fight win streak since losing to Álvarez, which was the first and only defeat of GGG’s professional boxing career.
Álvarez, 32, is a huge favorite for Saturday night’s clash, with DraftKings Sportsbook putting his odds at -550 while installing Golovkin as a +370 underdog.
Will Álvarez, a Mexican superstar, find more success upon returning to super middleweight, or will Golovkin, a powerhouse from Kazakhstan, pull off the upset before potentially riding off into the sunset?
Here are three bets to consider for Canelo vs. GGG III, with lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Álvarez to win in Rounds 10-12 (+550)
There’s simply no value in picking Álvarez to win, as a $100 wager at -550 would only net you a profit of $18.18. Therefore, you’ll need to be creative if you like Álvarez. Or just swallow hard and ride with Golovkin in some fashion, keeping your fingers crossed that a long-shot bet cashes. After all, GGG is fully capable of winning this fight. He’s just not the preferred choice from a prediction standpoint.
It’ll be interesting to see how Golovkin adjusts to fighting at 168. It could work in his favor, not having to shave off those eight pounds, but his chin also might be tested like never before. Álvarez packs a punch, as well as experience at super middleweight, and thus it’s reasonable to think he can finish off GGG as the fight wears on, especially since he’ll be extra motivated to put a stamp on his legacy.
You could bet on Álvarez to win by KO, TKO or DQ at +150, by TKO at +210 or by KO at +500. But since we’re confident Golovkin will hang around for a little while, let’s opt for the longer odds and bank on Álvarez somehow ending the trilogy in the final three rounds.
Golovkin to be knocked down in any of Rounds 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 or 12 (+275)
Again, if you like Álvarez, it’s all about finding different avenues, rather than simply betting on him to win outright. One such avenue is exploring if/when Golovkin will hit the mat. DraftKings Sportsbook has +110 odds on Golovkin being knocked down at any point and -150 on him staying upright for the duration of the match.
The “Yes” bet there isn’t terrible, but let’s roll the dice by pinpointing the round. Whether you go odd rounds or even rounds is up to you. We’ll opt for Golovkin being knocked down in an even round because they’ll likely feel each other out in Round 1, minimizing the likelihood there, and we like backloading our chances with Rounds 10 and 12, especially given our first wager on Álvarez to end the fight within that window.
Fight to go the distance (No +120)
Oddsmakers expect this fight to go to the judges’ scorecards, with DraftKings Sportsbook putting -165 odds on it going the distance. While that’s reasonable, seeing as the first two matchups ended that way and each combatant has shown the heart of a champion throughout his career, we’re expecting both fighters to hunt for the KO more than usual.
Álvarez is out to prove he’s still arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet despite losing to Bivol and that his much-debated majority-decision win over Golovkin four years ago was legitimate. Meanwhile, this conceivably could be Golovkin’s swan song and thus an opportunity for GGG to go out on top by becoming the first fighter to ever knock out Álvarez. That’s a recipe for someone to get caught slipping.