MLB DFS: Blue Jays, Braves Top Leverage Team Stacks


September 13

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Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.


The Toronto Blue Jays team stack looks to be sitting near the top of the leverage board in the second half of their doubleheader today against the Tampa Bay Rays. Toronto has won nine of their last eleven as they fight for seeding in the AL Wild Card race. The Blue Jays have been getting it done at the plate to best position themselves, as in September, they rank in the top three of both wOBA and wRC+. Their ISO falls to about the league average mark, but we know some of the monsters in that lineup that could easily make up for the discrepancy given their league-best HardHit% in September. 

There is no confirmed starter for this doubleheader’s second game, but it appears the Rays will be operating a bullpen game. Yonny Chirinos seems to be the primary arm they’ll use today who could eat up three to four innings. After spending most of the 2020 season, all of the 2021 campaign, and most of this season in the minors, Chirinos will likely make his second appearance of the season. He primarily served as a starter in 2019, so he could have the longevity to stretch it to five-six innings if all is going well. The truth is, he was in the minors because he stunk, so we shouldn’t anticipate a gem out of him tonight. Grabbing the dominant offense is desirable, but paying up for them might not be worth it, as we cannot discount fatigue in the second half of a doubleheader. Using those salary dollars on a marquee pitcher or a sure-fire expensive stack like the Los Angeles Dodgers might be a better allocation of your funds. 


The Atlanta Braves team stack also finds itself in a desirable leverage position ahead of their tilt against Jakob Junis and the San Francisco Giants. Junis had a solid start to the season, but a rough August set him back considerably. Over five starts, his August ERA sat north of 7.00, and he hasn’t done anything convincing in September thus far to give us confidence. His seasonal expected ERA and FIP approach 4.00, and his strikeout production isn’t significant at a 20.9% clip. He has been vulnerable to power throughout his career and has been surrendering much more as of late, lessening the progress we hoped he had made.

The Braves’ offense has been so much fun to witness as they continue to rake as they look to overtake NL East supremacy. They have ranked in the top ten in wOBA and wRC+ with the third-best ISO ranking over the past two weeks and have shown no sign of slowing down. Their HardHit%/Barrel% split is nearly at 48%/10% during that stretch, the most convincing of any team. This stack won’t be cheap and will have a favorable matchup against a slumping pitcher in a leverage situation. With a lineup littered with potential plays, having some Braves’ exposure certainly is a high-floor play to make. 

Thumbnail photo via Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

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