The injury to starting quarterback Trey Lance along with a season-opening loss have combine to impact the betting markets relating to the San Francisco 49ers but not in a major way.
The 49ers have slightly higher prices to win the Super Bowl (+2000) and NFC (+900) than they did entering the season while their odds to win the NFC West division remain exactly where they were before the campaign started (+150). San Francisco’s win total has been knocked down a half game from 10 wins to over/under 9.5 and the 49ers remain favored to make the playoffs, though the juice has moved from -225 to -190.
Undoubtedly the most noticeable difference, however, relates to the NFL MVP prices of their starting quarterback.
Lance, the No. 3 overall draft pick from the 2021 NFL Draft, entered the 2022-23 season as a respectable 25-to-1 MVP bet. Not bad for someone who had only started two of the six games he played as a rookie, right? With Lance named the starter, oddsmakers had to respect the potential of the 49ers’ offense. Well, Lance will not be taking home the award after suffering a season-ending ankle injury during San Francisco’s Week 2 win against the Seattle Seahawks.
It prompted veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to take over behind center just five quarters into the campaign. And while Garoppolo moves forward with the backing of the organization, despite being involved in trade talks all offseason, oddsmakers don’t indicate the same level of confidence. Garoppolo, in a stark contrast to Lance, is a 150-to-1 bet to win the same award at DraftKings Sportsbook.
While Lance found himself in the neighborhood of other respectable starting quarterbacks entering the season, Garoppolo has the same prices as wide receivers like Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs and Michael Thomas along with running backs AJ Dillon, Saquon Barkley, D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon and Javonte Williams to win a quarterback-driven award. Defenders like T.J. Watt, who is expected to miss at least four games with an upper-body injury, Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett have the same 150-to-1 prices as Garoppolo. To really drive the point home, though, the quarterback company Garoppolo finds himself with includes Teddy Bridgewater, Davis Mills, Sam Darnold and Kenny Pickett, a few of whom still are considered back ups and might not see the field this season.
It’s rather shocking especially considering the 49ers haven’t been drastically moved down the board after the injury to Lance. If you want to take a flier on Garoppolo, it’s probably not a bad idea to do so sooner rather than later. Because why his prices are noteworthy now, one or two wins with the 49ers will almost certainly cause oddsmakers to slash.
Garoppolo and the 49ers will face the AFC West Denver Broncos in a Week 3 primetime game.