NFL Survivor League Week 4: Consider Aaron Rodgers, Packers Vs. Patriots

The Packers represent the largest spread on the betting board


Sep 29, 2022

Well, it’s pretty clear the NFL is not taking any prisoners to start the 2022-23 campaign, and survivor league players surely have felt the impacts.

After a wild two-week stretch that undoubtedly slashed the field, Week 3 featured eight wins by underdogs. The stunning loss by the Kansas City Chiefs probably was felt the most by survivor leaguers with the previously winless Indianapolis Colts knocking out a number of players. And even with an injury-plagued Justin Herbert, it’s fair to think not many saw the Jacksonville Jaguars defeating the Los Angeles Chargers. Those two results likely caused the majority of Week 3 knockouts, as was the case in the Circa Sports Survivor Football Content.

For those still alive in their respective NFL survivor leagues, well, congratulations are in order. But nevertheless, it’s time to move on.

And with that, we’ve included three teams to pick and three others to avoid in NFL survivor leagues with the calendar moving to Week 4. Betting prices are courtesy of consensus data on the live odds page.

Teams to consider
(-9.5) Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have the largest point spread on the betting board given the likelihood the visiting Patriots will have second-stringer Brian Hoyer behind center rather than injured starter Mac Jones. The Packers’ defense has looked like one of the league’s best, especially the last two weeks. Should the veteran Hoyer get the start, they’ll throw everything at him. Green Bay has a favorable schedule with the Giants, Jets and Commanders making up its next three games, which might cause some players to save them for another time. But that doesn’t make it any less enticing this week given how the season has played out thus far.

(-5) Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
The Chargers will enter their Week 4 game a bit shorthanded with pass rusher Joey Bosa and offensive tackle Rashawn Slater each suffering injuries last week, one week after Herbert was injured himself. Herbert played through his rib injury in Week 3, and likely will do so again this week. Given the Chargers have more of a bleak long-term outlook than initially expected, survivor leaguers will have to pick their spots. They won’t have many better options than Week 4 against the 1-2 Texans, regardless of being on the road.

(-4) Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks
The 1-2 Lions allowed the Vikings to mount a fourth-quarter comeback in Week 3, marking their second loss of the season by four points or less. While Detroit likely will be without starting running back D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams is more than capable to excel against a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in yards and 27th in touchdowns allowed. The Seahawks offense, meanwhile, ranks 28th in points and yards. While Detroit has the Bears (twice) and Jets down the line, it’s an enticing spot for players looking to go a bit against the grain.

Honorable mentions: (-6.5) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Teams to avoid
(-3.5) Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

The Bengals opened as 1.5-point favorites and have jumped to 4-point favorites perhaps due to the uncertainty surrounding Dolphins starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Nevertheless, we’re going to fade the 1-2 Bengals given how they’ve looked through three weeks, despite their decisive win against the Jets. Joe Burrow and company will present a more enticing option further down the line, especially given they’re coming off a short week on “Thursday Night Football.”

(-3) Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
This one isn’t overly complicated. The Bills have far better matchups on the board than the Ravens, like the Pittsburgh Steelers the following week or the Jets (twice).

(-1) Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There’s a chance this game moves to Minnesota because of Hurricane Ian, so it’s not a case of home-field advantage but rather matchup. Kansas City will have better options down the road with the Texans, Seahawks and maybe even uninspiring Broncos (?) still twice on the schedule. Tom Brady’s team is feeling the hurt, but we’re not willing to bet against him in many spots.

Thumbnail photo via Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports Images

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