NFL Week 3 Prop Bets: Three To Consider Before Market Moves

Trevor Lawrence is looking like a No. 1 pick

by

September 23

Bettors are looking at the rest of the Week 3 slate either defeated or rejoiced after the unexpected ending on “Thursday Night Football.” Either way, we move on and look for some winners on the remaining slate.

Here are three props to grab before the market steams the numbers up even higher before kickoff.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at New England Patriots, 1 p.m. ET
Mark Andrews: Over 57.5 receiving yards (-110)

Ravens tight end Mark Andrews is dominating the target share in Baltimore with 14 catches on 18 targets. This comes as no surprise. Andrews led the team last season in targets, and receptions, even with Marquise “Hollywood” Brown still part of the mix. Andrews dominated the leaderboards last season with 1,361 yards on 153 targets. He has already found the top of the charts this season, with the most catches on the second-most targets. He finished with 52 yards on just five catches in week one and 104 yards on 9 catches in Week 2. The Patriots haven’t allowed much production to tight ends so far in 2022, but it’s a small sample size and Andrews is among the elite tight ends of the league. In addition to Andrews’ catches or yards, I also like his anytime touchdown (+160 at Caesars Sportsbook). He led the team with 21 targets in the red zone last season and we should see the same production in 2022, sooner than later.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7), 4:05 p.m ET
Trevor Lawrence over 22.5 completions (-130)

The Jaguars showed early promise with a 24-0 win over the Colts in Week 2. Trevor Lawrence finished the game with 25 completions on 30 attempts for 235 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. In Week 1, he was less impressive but still went 24-for-42 against the Commanders in a game where his squad had to play catchup until the end of a 28-22 loss. Two very different games and outcomes, and he still went over his completions in both contests. The Chargers bring a whole new challenge to the Jaguars in Week 3. Los Angeles is the biggest favorite on the board, laying a touchdown Sunday. Game script tells us the Jaguars are expected to play from behind early and often, which bodes well for this prop. Through the first two weeks, Lawrence’s 68.1% completion percentage ranks in the top 10 starting quarterbacks. That number is certainly promising after he finished 2021 with a 59.6% completion percentage (among the worst). The Chargers have allowed an average of 36 pass attempts per game so far in 2022, ninth-most in the NFL. Lawrence’s attempts are set at 35.5 but I like my chances of him completing at least 23 of those passes instead. Even last year when Lawrence’s completion percentage was among the worst, any time he attempted 36 or more passes, he had more than 22 completions (except one week where he had 22 and lost by the hook).

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK), 4:25 p.m. ET
Aaron Jones over 84.5 rushing+receiving yards (-115)

Aaron Rodgers may need some more time to find chemistry with his wide receivers, but there’s no denying he feels comfortable leaning on Jones. Not only does Jones now lead the team in rushing yards with 181 but he also has the second most receiving yards (65) and is tied for the second-most targets in the passing game. In Week 1, he finished with 76 combined yards but that was only with five rushing attempts. In Week 2, he went off for 132 rushing yards on 15 attempts and 38 receiving yards (for a total of 170 total yards). Aside from his production in Week 2, Jones is one of the few healthy weapons on offense this week. Green Bay is facing a cluster of injuries at the wideout position, with their top four receivers in Allen Lazard (ankle), Sammy Watkins (hamstring), Randall Cobb (sickness) and Christian Watson (hamstring) all not practicing Thursday. With their collective availability for Sunday uncertain, expect Rodgers to find Jones early and often through the air, when he’s not moving the chains in the running game. The Buccaneers are dealing with their own slew of injuries, on top of Mike Evans’ suspension, and we have seen this line move from Tampa -3 to a pick ‘em. It’s safe to say this will be a back-and-forth game and whether Green Bay decides to lean on the run or get yards through the air, Jones is the most reliable player to do both.

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