Making NFL picks isn’t easy. Trying to hit on a weekly parlay is even more difficult, as Week 3 reminded us.
The weekly best-bet parlay came close to getting home, at least if you think hitting on two of three legs is “close.” We were all over the Bucs-Packers slopfest, and the continued Falcons love was rewarded in Seattle. But the sportsbooks aren’t about to hand us some of our money because we nailed two out of three. The Rams and Cardinals joined the gaggle of Week 3 unders, and the parlay died a slow death.
But hey, back at it for Week 4. Betting lines are consensus from the NESNBets live odds page.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions UNDER 48 (-110)
Few teams have been as fun to watch as the Lions this season, as they have that entertaining mix of high-powered offense and occasionally hapless defense. The over has hit in all three of their games. So, why would we step in front of this and go under? The Lions have some major injury issues on offense with both running back D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown out. The Lions also have some injury issues on the offensive line. Obviously, their defense still is what it is, but the Seahawks are unlikely to come in and light it up. If anything, they’ll probably look to establish their run game, which obviously points toward the under.
Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Buffalo Bills (-110)
Let’s get weird. The Ravens have really impressed through three weeks, especially on offense led by MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson. His game-changing skill is present as ever on the ground, but he continues to improve in the passing game, too, which is bad news for Buffalo. The Bills secondary has been decimated by injury. As for the Baltimore defense, the Ravens could be helped by the remnants of Hurricane Ian with forecasts calling for some 15-20 mph wind with some rain Sunday afternoon. While that could also slow down the aforementioned Ravens passing attack, Baltimore is definitely more equipped to pivot and lean on the run game.
San Francisco 49ers -1.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams (-110)
No defense has generated quarterback pressure on a more consistent basis than San Francisco. The Rams have had some problems protecting Matthew Stafford this season; Stafford has been pressured on 28% of his dropbacks through three weeks and has been sacked nine times. There might also be a bit of a revenge game factor here after last season’s NFC Championship Game, a contest that San Francisco probably should have won — and that Rams team was better than this version. The Trent Williams injury gives us reason for pause, but the guess here is the 49ers’ offense has a bounce-back performance after a frustrating showing last week in Denver.
Payout: 1 unit to win 5.96 units
To-date: UP 2.23 units