NFL Week 4 Picks: Joe Burrow Prop, Teaser For Sunday Slate

Look for Burrow to throw it all over the yard

by

September 29

“Thursday Night Football” has the potential to be the best game on the Week 4 slate, with a matchup between the undefeated Dolphins and a Bengals team looking for a statement win.

However, Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa took a brutal hit last week and is now listed as questionable on the injury report (back/ankle) for Thursday night’s game. Not knowing his availability for the matchup makes betting this game difficult from a side perspective, and for that reason we will go with one prop that should go over no matter what the injury report says before kickoff.

Looking ahead at the rest of the Week 4 slate, we will break down a teaser option I like.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 29
Miami Dolphins at (-3.5) Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m. ET

Joe Burrow over 35.5 pass attempts (-138, FanDuel Sportsbook)
While the Bengals offense has yet to put together four complete quarters this season, one aspect of consistency has been Joe Burrow cashing this play. The three-year starter has had 36 or more pass attempts in all three games so far. With each game script being so different through Cincinnati’s first three weeks, I feel comfortable going over Burrow’s attempts even with the uncertainty of Tua’s status for Miami. If he does play, this game will be a shootout and the over on the prop should cash easily. If he doesn’t play or is limited, the Bengals will aim to get an early lead, and they’ll need to come out slinging early and often to do so. They should be able to do just that with Miami’s defense allowing the second-most passing yards per game (297.7) and fourth-most passing attempts per game (40.67) in the NFL this season. The fact that it’s a short week, and the Dolphins defense was on the field for 90 plays and over 42 minutes on Sunday, bodes well for Cincinnati, as well. The Bengals need to prove last year’s success wasn’t a fluke and there’s no better opportunity for them to do that than this week against this Dolphins team facing a tough travel spot.

SUNDAY, OCT. 2
2 team-6 point Teaser: Eagles -0.5 / Cardinals +7.5 (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5 to -0.5), 1 p.m.

I said it in the preseason and I’m more confidently saying it now: Don’t sleep on the Jacksonville Jaguars. New head coach Doug Pederson has brought a spark to Trevor Lawrence and this offense that is exciting for #DUUUVAL fans. With that being said, their Week 4 opponent has quickly found their names in the NFC championship conversation after a hot 3-0 start. The Eagles have dominated nearly every week so far, outside of allowing the Lions to make it competitive in trash time in Week 1’s 38-35 win. The Eagles defense has allowed just 15 points total to their opponents in the last two games, and are allowing just 3.8 yards per play with a 34.5% third-down conversion rate in that stretch. Overall, the Eagles have allowed the fifth-fewest total yards (890) and have racked up the second-most sacks (12). On offense, Philadelphia leads the league in yards per game thanks to its plethora of weapons and its quarterback, Jalen Hurts, who has solidified himself as a serious threat both on the ground and through the air. Philadelphia is averaging 28.7 points a game (fifth-best) and should be able to beat this Jags team by a touchdown. However, Nick Sirianni and crew are due for a hiccup or two, and I want to save myself the sweat by teasing Philly down close to a pick ’em.

Arizona Cardinals (+1.5 to +7.5) @ Carolina Panthers, 4:05 p.m.

The market has bet this total from 46.5 down to 42.5, one of the lower totals on the board. A low total tells us there is less variance likely in the game, which means it should be a close one, especially with the line currently sitting at 1.5. The Cardinals offense has gotten off to a slow start this season, to say the least. They have been awful in the first half of games — they’re the only team in the NFL to have yet to score a point in the first quarter. However, I don’t expect that trend to continue. Receiver AJ Green is doubtful for the game Sunday, which I’m not too worried about, with four Cardinals having more targets than him so far and six players overall having double-digit targets on the team. Plus, this game is an opportunity to feature the Cards run game, which they haven’t done nearly enough yet. The Panthers defense has been solid, but it has given up the 10th-most rush yards so far. Kyler Murray himself hasn’t used his legs like he did last season and we should see a return to that this week with Arizona fighting to get back to .500. While the Panthers defense might be a bright spot, their offense has put up the third-fewest total yards, with Baker Mayfield ranking No.32 in both ESPN’s QBR and Pro Football Focus’ Quarterback Rating list heading into Week 4. Carolina’s most powerful weapon, running back Christian McCaffrey, did not participate in Wednesday’s practice with a quad issue. McCaffrey not only leads the team with 50 rushing attempts, but also has the third-most targets in the passing game with 14. If he’s not on the field, the Cardinals have an even bigger advantage.

Thumbnail photo via Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports Images

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