NFL Week 4 kicked off with a matchup of two top AFC teams that finished with a much-needed victory for the Cincinnati Bengals. With that loss for the Miami Dolphins, the Philadelphia Eagles remain the only undefeated team in the NFL.
Will Philadelphia still be the league’s top dog after this week? I have a feeling they will and I wrote here why I think this spot fits well in a teaser.
Looking at the rest of the slate, let’s break down a few player props to hop on before Sunday.
Robert Tonyan over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
Tonyan has gone over this number twice, with 36 yards in week 1 and 37 in Week 3. Despite Aaron Rodgers having plenty of weapons in the passing game, Tonyan has been a favorite target. The tight end has the second-most targets and catches on the team so far, and to no surprise. He’s averaging an elite 4.6 yards of separation at the time of the catch, which ranked third in the NFL heading into Week 4. In that stretch, he also ranks third, only behind Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts, in targets per route run. Even better, It’s a good matchup for him against a Patriots defense that is allowing the second-most targets to tight ends in the NFL, while surrendering 47 yards a game to the position, through the first three weeks.
Josh Allen over 282.5 passing yards (-115)
Baltimore has allowed an outrageous average of 353.3 passing yards a game, which is the worst in the NFL by a wide margin. No other team is surrendering more than 299. Every quarterback they have faced has easily gone over this number, including Joe Flacco and Mac Jones, who rank fourth- and eighth-lowest, respectively, in ESPN’s Quarterback Rating through the first three weeks. Heading into Week 4, Allen comes in with the third-best QBR while leading the league in passing yards. He’s averaging 338 yards a game (even with sitting out a full quarter in a Week 2 blowout against the Tennessee Titans) and has gone over this prop in every game so far. I see no reason why he would go under here, especially with this matchup.
Jonathan Taylor: longest rush over 18.5 yards (-110)
Keep an eye on the injury report here. Taylor missed his first practice Wednesday due to a toe injury. Fun fact: He had never missed a practice in the NFL, college or high school before this week. The good news is he was a full participant in Thursday’s practice. If he is ready to go and not limited on Sunday, this prop should cash. He was elite last season, so much so that his 286 rushing yards through the first three weeks is considered a “slow start.” Expect him to return to his explosive ways in Week 4 against Tennessee. Last season, he led the NFL in carries of 20 or more yards and he already has the third-most rushing attempts and fourth-most rush yards of all running backs so far in 2022. While his longest run so far this season is only 21 yards (Week 2), the Colts’ offensive line should manage to create enough space for him to reach an explosive play or two against this Titans defense that has allowed the third-most rush yards a game at 145. Taylor’s longest runs have been 17, 21 and 13, respectively, which bodes well for him reaching at least 19 this week against a weaker run defense.