Patriots Odds: Why Bill Belichick’s Home Dog Record Little Deceiving

Baltimore is a short favorite in Foxboro


September 22

Legendary Las Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro once told me on the VSiN set that “trends don’t pay the rent.”

There’s plenty of truth to that because trends tell us about the past, not the present or future. Even if you uncover a trend that is 10-0 against the spread, there’s absolutely no guarantee it’ll come through in Game 11. Trends should supplement your handicap, not be the deciding factor.

That’s because trends don’t always tell the entire story.

With Bill Belichick on the sideline, the New England Patriots are 15-4 ATS as a home underdog. That’s a relatively decent sample size, but there’s a common denominator for most of those covers: Tom Brady. The Pats are 12-2 ATS in the aforementioned role with Brady at quarterback and 3-2 ATS without.

“I heard that (15-4 ATS) stat and immediately thought about Brady,” WynnBET senior trader Motoi Pearson told NESN. “We try to keep the trends in mind, but we don’t make it a big deal as far as the power ratings are concerned between the Patriots and any team they play the rest of this season.”

The Pats opened as a 3-point underdog and the market is down to +2.5 at a few shops.

“We have eyes on the Patriots,” Pearson said. “We’re low on the Steelers and watching Patriots-Steelers was a tragedy in itself. Our room is full of Ravens believers against the Pats. We don’t want to get too crazy and give away a ridiculous dog number on the Pats. We’ll let the money dictate where we should be.”

Perhaps the biggest question entering the Week 3 matchup at Gillette Stadium: How will Belichick stop Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson?

“He’s gonna need another rainstorm,” Pearson joked. “It’s pretty cliché to say to watch out for a team off a loss, but the Ravens should’ve won that game in Miami. They’ll probably have a chip on their shoulder. The Patriots are going to have to scheme up something brilliant to keep Lamar from getting loose.”

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