Why Patriots’ Week 2 Win Could Mark Missed Opportunity For Bettors

New England's season-long odds shifted with Sunday's victory over the Steelers


September 19, 2022

Oddsmakers wasted no time in reacting to the Patriots’ 17-14 win over the Steelers on Sunday, adjusting the futures market in several spots to reflect New England’s improved standing after its Week 2 victory in Pittsburgh.

So, while there’s still an opportunity to buy low on the Patriots for the 2022 NFL campaign, you probably won’t find numbers quite as favorable as they were last week, when New England was coming off a disappointing season-opening loss to the Miami Dolphins.

Here were the Patriots’ futures odds at DraftKings Sportsbook before Week 2:

To win Super Bowl: +7000
To win AFC: +3000
To win AFC East: +1000
To make playoffs: Yes +230, No -300
Regular-season wins: Over 7.5 (-140), Under 7.5 (+120)

Now, here are the Patriots’ futures odds as DraftKings Sportsbook after Week 2, as of Monday night:

To win Super Bowl: +5000
To win AFC: +2500
To win AFC East: +1000
To make playoffs: Yes +180, No -225
Regular-season wins: Over 8.5 (+105), Under 8.5 (-125)

The division odds remained stagnant largely because the Dolphins and New York Jets both won Sunday — in dramatic fashion, no less. And the Buffalo Bills, who play Monday night, remain the heavy favorites in the AFC East. If the Patriots reach the postseason, it’ll likely be by earning a wild-card spot, the path they took last season before getting smoked by the Bills in the first round of the playoffs.

Admittedly, at first glance, it doesn’t seem like a dramatic shift in the other numbers. The adjustments still are noteworthy, though. Especially, for instance, when you consider a $100 wager on the Patriots to win Super Bowl LVII now would return a profit of $5,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook, as opposed to a $7,000 payout if you placed the bet on New England last week.

A $100 bet on the Patriots to win the AFC last week came with a potential $3,000 payday. Now, it’d be a $2,500 windfall if Bill Belichick and company represent the conference on football’s biggest stage.

Of course, the exact odds vary from sportsbook to sportsbook. So, always shop around for the best number. But the perception surrounding the Patriots clearly changed a little bit with their win over the Steelers, and you’ll therefore be taxed accordingly if you rush to the window to back New England.

It’s worth noting the Patriots have been installed as three-point home underdogs for their Week 3 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. Since this implies the Ravens are expected to win and the futures market fluctuates throughout the season, you might be best served waiting until after this Sunday — and maybe even until after Week 4, since New England almost certainly will be underdogs against the Green Bay Packers — to place a season-long bet on the Patriots.

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Thumbnail photo via David Dermer/USA TODAY Sports Images

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