Is Geno Smith For Real? Seahawks QB Could Be In Line For NFL Award

Smith's play through the first four weeks of the season has been legit


October 5

One of the more exciting and heart-warming stories of the 2022 NFL season has been the incredible play of Geno Smith.

The tradition is to overreact in Week 1, and that’s what many did as the Seattle Seahawks upset the Denver Broncos on “Monday Night Football.” The win was capped off with Smith’s mic drop line, “They wrote me off. I ain’t write back, though.”

It seemed like a flash in a pan game for the career back-up quarterback, but Smith has led Seattle to a 2-2 record and in a four-way tie in the NFC West. And the numbers back up the 31-year-old’s play.

Smith has a No. 2 passing grade, according to Pro Football Focus. He is 5th in QBR and his 77.3% completion percentage leads the league on a 8.1 average depth of target. Smith is No. 1 in completion percentage over expectation and fifth in expected points added per play. The point is the Seahawks signal-caller has been insanely good through four weeks.

Things could go south starting in Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints, but maybe it doesn’t. The 2022 season could just be a huge outlier year in Smith’s career, and he could earn some hardware by year’s end.

Smith isn’t listed on every major sportsbook for Comeback Player of the Year, but here’s where he is listed and where his odds stand heading into Week 5.

DraftKings: +2000
Caesars: +1500

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The Caesars Sportsbook price was at 25-to-1 before, but there’s clearly some hype going into Smith, and history is on his side. The last four winners of the award were quarterbacks with Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow winning in 2021. If you want to go even further, quarterbacks have won 11 of the last 15 Comeback Player of the Year awards.

Like MVP, Comeback Player of the Year tends to favor QBs more often than not, but New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley is a clear favorite at +150 on DraftKings Sportsbook and +125 on Caesars. There’s also other stiff competitions, most of which are running backs.

But with Carolina Panthers star Christian McCaffrey battling injuries, Derrick Henry on a bad Tennessee Titans team and J.K. Dobbins’ upside capped by Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, Smith just needs to continue his stellar play to overtake those contenders.

A $100 bet on DraftKings pays out $2,100, and a $100 bet on Caesars pays out $1,600.

It seemed like Smith’s career as a starter was over after defensive end IK Enemkpali fractured his jaw in the New York Jets locker room in 2015, but the nine-year veteran is finally showing what he is capable of, and Seahawks fans are having a blast while on the ride.

Thumbnail photo via Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports Images

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