Bengals-Browns DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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Joe Burrow has the highest point projection on a DFS showdown slate between his Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. Burrow has been balling lately, winning four of his last five while working magic with his arm. He’ll be out his number one target in Ja’Marr Chase tonight, but they have a bevy of stacking options to provide value with Burrow at the multiplier. His $17,100 price has more flexibility without Chase while projected to be undervalued at the multiplier.

Tee Higgins only costs $12,000, projecting him to be the highest owned multiplier given the financial flexibility and seeing (ideally) additional targets without Chase’s presence. The Browns’ secondary remains depleted with Denzel Ward out, making double-digit targets the expectation for tonight. The appeal is evident at the multiplier, but don’t discount Burrow’s multiplier leverage given how well he has been throwing and that he will look to get his other options heavily involved. 

Nick Chubb gives backers incredible upside regardless of the game script, as he ranks first in both rushing yards and touchdowns while ranking third in rushing attempts. He offers consistency and optimal upside at $15,600 in the multiplier spot while not sacrificing ownership leverage.

Joe Mixon will come in $1,500 less than Chubb at the multiplier while offering a similar volume upside minus the touchdown production. He leads football with 27 red-zone touches this season which gives us hope that trend is turning around, but we only need it to work for one game. Without Chase, there could be additional upside from the 5.14 targets he’s averaged this year.

Amari Cooper has four double-digit target games under his belt this season, with an endzone score in each of those four outings. Double-digit targets and a score would put you in a great position to climb up the optimal board. He’ll be a cheaper option at the multiplier with low ownership and obvious upside, but playing him over Higgins, given their similar prices, would be rather bold. 

Jacoby Brissett outdueling Burrow is far-fetched, so we’ll be looking at him as a low-owned FLEX option, seeing the most positive leverage on tonight’s board. He’s passed for at least 230 yards in each of the last four years, which can give him a solid floor as a stacking option, especially in Cooper builds. 

Kareem Hunt has had a concerning production slippage over the last two games, making us concerned about his upside as an over-owned play. Looking to a high upside, cheap value play could be the move off Hunt after only seeing ten combined touches over the past two weeks.

Tyler Boyd looks to be a popular play, as he should be in for a respectable volume increase without Chase. He’ll understandably be over-owned but looks to be worth it at $6,400 and worth backing, given the options priced comparably to him.

Mike Thomas, at $1,200, played at least 69% of the snaps in the two games where Higgins saw a reduced workload. We obviously cannot guarantee volume for him, but at $1,200, his snap share could approach 80%, so he’ll undoubtedly get some balls directed his way.

The Browns’ second through fourth receivers are priced higher than Thomas, so it is hard to view David Bell and Michael Woods II as worthy plays over him. Donovan Peoples-Jones at $5,000 could be an option despite being over-owned, as in three of his last four games, he’s totaled at least 70 yards while averaging nearly seven targets per game during that stretch. Biting the ownership hit on Thomas over Peoples-Jones could be stronger due to the financial incentive, but Peoples-Jones could be a solid option.

David Njoku will not be active tonight, which could open up a prime opportunity for Harrison Bryant to have a strong showing. Bryant was seeing about half the snaps with Njoku on the field, so ideally, we could see Bryant pick up on Njoku’s roughly seven targets per game workload that he’s seen over the past five games as an under-owned FLEX play at only $4,000. Miller Forristall is who we project to back up Bryant, so he could be in for a few targets at $200.

Hayden Hurst will be another one of the over-owned Bengals’ pass catchers. In the two games where Higgins had a limited workload, Hurst combined for 15 targets, so he could be an enticing target to back, given the ownership overpay.