NFL Odds: Consider Two-Team Teaser Among Week 5 Wagers

Matt Ryan Over passing attempts is worthy, too

by

October 6

NFL bettors surely are hoping for a successful slate as Week 5 kicks off Thursday night between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos.

Here are a few Week 5 wagers to consider:

Matt Ryan Over 32.5 pass attempts (-120) 
This is a very low number for a quarterback who’s best weapon in the run game won’t be on the field. Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out for “Thursday Night Football” with an ankle injury, which means Indianapolis will have to lean on the passing game even more than they have to this point. With the Denver Broncos heading into the game as three-point favorites, game script tells us Ryan and company will be playing from behind in some capacity, which bodes well for the over on this prop as well. Ryan has gone over this number in several different game situations so far this season. He had 50 attempts in the Week 1 tie against the Houston Texans and 37 in each of the last two weeks, with both a win and loss against the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans, respectively. Denver’s defense has been solid so far but they are allowing 32.3 pass attempts per game, which will be right around what we need to cash this bet.  

2-Team-6 Point Teaser:  
San Francisco 49ers from -6.5 to -0.5 at Carolina Panthers
Baker Mayfield does not look good … and that’s being nice. He has the worst quarterback rating in the NFL. According to ESPN’s QBR, he sits at 15.3, which is 10.9 points worse than the next quarterback (Justin Fields) and shockingly lower than the league’s best in Patrick Mahomes (82.3). Carolina is averaging the fewest yards per game (262.3) and just 19.5 points per game. Mayfield now has to face the NFL’s best defense by total DVOA in the San Francisco 49ers, who are allowing the fewest points in the NFL (11.5 per game). Mayfield will likely be feeling the pressure from the first play with his old friend Nick Bosa, who is leading the league in sacks, QB hits, pressures and pressure rate. Christian McCaffrey is the biggest threat on this Carolina offense and this matchup won’t be ideal for him. So far, San Francisco is allowing the second-fewest rush yards a game (73.3), and that doesn’t bode well for a running back that is already sparking trade rumors with his lack of durability just four weeks into the season. Give me the better offense, defense, and one of the best offensive minds, and head coaches in the NFL with Kyle Shanahan to win this one.  

Jacksonville Jaguars from -7 to -1 vs. Houston Texans
The Jags have made it to Week 5 with a split 2-2 record. It’s important to note the manner of those wins, though. Week 2 they shut out the Colts 24-0 only to follow it up with a 38-10 blowout over the Los Angeles Chargers the next week. Unfortunately, a mix of poor play and bad weather led to Trevor Lawrence’s five turnovers in a Week 4 loss to the Eagles. The silver lining is that only one of those turnovers came from an interception and outside of that game, Lawrence has looked like a different quarterback this season. He already has eight passing touchdowns with a 65.7% completion percentage, after throwing just 12 touchdowns with a 59.6% completion percentage in his first NFL season. I still believe this Jags team is legit. They rank just outside the top-10 in overall DVOA on offense and  sit in the top-10 in points per game through the first four weeks while the defense has been the anchor, ranking sixth best in total DVOA. A tough defense spells trouble for this Houston team that has yet to pick up a win in 2022. The closest they’ve got was their Week 1 tie with the Colts. They’re averaging just 18.3 points per game and 302 yards a game, both ranking as the sixth-fewest in the NFL. As much potential as Davis Mills might have shown down the stretch last season, that upside hasn’t come to fruition in 2022 and he has the fourth-worst QBR to prove it. While the secondary may be the strength of the Texans, they’ve given up the second-most rush yards per game and their overall defense ranks sixth-worst in total DVOA. Give me the better defense and more well-rounded offense down to a pick’em.  

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Thumbnail photo via Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports Images

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