With a rather underwhelming “Thursday Night Football” matchup in the books, we move on to NFL Sunday picks.
Along with a two-team, six-point teaser I wrote about in Thursday’s article here are some plays I have in mind for the rest of the NFL Week 5 slate.
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Eagles’ 4-0 record would say they’re the best team in football, as they’re the only remaining undefeated team. With one of the hottest offenses and one of the best defenses so far, I would have to agree. This is a great spot for Philly against an Arizona team that has been disappointing. At first, I wanted to go with Jalen Hurts’ attempts or yards prop, but those lines are pretty tight. Arizona is top 10 in completions allowed per game while allowing the second-most passing attempts (44.3), and fifth-most points a game (25.8). Since the defensive matchup bodes well for the Eagles’ passing game, here are two studs on this offense that I think are worth targeting in the prop market.
A.J. Brown over 74.5 receiving yards (-115)
Brown continues to dominate the target share in Philadelphia, with 25 catches on 38 targets (the most on the team) so far. He has gone over this prop in three of four games, averaging 101 receiving yards per game with his lowest total being 69 yards in Week 2. Brown’s 404 yards ranks fourth NFL through the first four weeks. Hurts should continue to feed the 25-year-old wideout again Sunday in Arizona.
Dallas Goedert over 3.5 catches, over 42.5 receiving yards
Goedert has gone over this yardage prop in three of four games, while his reception prop has gone over in two of four games (missing by the hook twice). The Eagles tight end averages four catches and 60 yards per contest. Along with DeVonta Smith and Brown, the tight end is the only other Eagle to see double-digit targets. It’s a great matchup for him as Arizona is allowing the most targets to tight ends (9.5) and second most yards (85.2 yards a game). The Cardinals rank 29th in DVOA defending the tight end so far this season, so Goedert should get his fair share in the passing game.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams Under 43.5 points, 4:25 p.m.
Underdog of the week: Cowboys +198
The Rams haven’t lived up to their defending champion title so far. Their offense has struggled, averaging just 17.5 points per game, with the third-fewest rush yards and fifth-fewest total yards per game. Anyone not named Cooper Kupp has been unreliable, and Matthew Stafford can’t find a rhythm behind a disappointing offensive line. Stafford’s six interceptions lead the league to just four touchdown passes.
On the flip side, as the Cowboys wait for Dak Prescott’s return, Cooper Rush continues to come up clutch.
Rush is going for his fifth win, which would make him just one of four undrafted quarterbacks to start their careers 5-0. ESPN has Rush ranked as the fifth-best quarterback in QBR so far through the first four weeks. The offense does still need some work, as it’s just outside the bottom five in yards per game while averaging just 17.8 points a game, but the defense is the difference in this matchup.
The big names on the Rams roster are what make them stand out, with Aaron Donald, Bobby Wagner and Jalen Ramsey, but the numbers favor Dallas’ D. So far the Cowboys lead the league in pressures, are tied for the league with 15 sacks, rank fifth in total DVOA, and have yet to allow more than 19 points in a game. The Rams have been blown out twice in just four games, and their two wins were less than convincing against underwhelming teams in the Falcons and Cardinals. Don’t be surprised if the Cowboys advance to 4-1 after this week. Either way, I like the under here, seeing this game as a defensive battle with not much offense.
