NFL Week 6 Picks: Bills Seek Revenge; Eagles Face Toughest Test Yet
Plus, can the Falcons stay undefeated against the spread?
You’re going to want to clear your schedule Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Week 6 of the NFL season technically kicks off Thursday night with a truly wretched matchup between the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears. That’s apparently the penance pigskin fanatics must pay for what looks like a great end to the Sunday slate, starting with the must-see rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills at 4:25 p.m. ET leading into “Sunday Night Football” between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.
That seven-hour stretch might feel more like championship weekend than it does Week 6, which makes sense, as both showdowns could be potential playoff previews.
NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle, though, are committed to tackling each and every game. In this spot every week, they make their against-the-spread picks for every game on the NFL calendar. In addition, the duo also run down their best bets on “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast, which you can find below.
Before getting into this week’s ATS picks, here’s how they fared last week.
Mike Cole: 11-4-1 (43-34-3)
Ricky Doyle: 8-7-1 (38-39-3)
Now, here are their Week 6 picks based on consensus betting lines at the NESNBets live odds page.
THURSDAY, OCT. 13
Washington Commanders at (-1) Chicago Bears, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Commanders. Washington is stout against the run, and all the Bears want to do is run. When the Commanders take that away, it’s going to put Justin Fields — who hasn’t attempted more than 22 passes in a game this season — in an uncomfortable spot, especially if that D.C. pass rush gets going.
Ricky: Bears. People keep ragging on this game. But I’m OK with getting it out of the way early. Just give me the home team, I guess.
SUNDAY, OCT. 16
(-5.5) San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. The 49ers are in a tough spot here, with their second East Coast game in as many weeks and with mounting injuries (notably Nick Bosa and Emmanuel Moseley), while also having a showdown with the Chiefs lingering next week. Atlanta has the offensive weapons to sneak in the back door here.
Ricky: Falcons. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS this season despite a 2-3 SU record. There’s probably a Calvin Ridley joke in there somewhere.
New England Patriots at (-2.5) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m
Mike: Patriots. There are a ton of similarities between these two teams: great rushing attacks, poor run defenses and suspect quarterback play. The big difference, though, is Bill Belichick coaches the Patriots, and he’ll be able to exploit Cleveland’s weaknesses better than vice versa.
Ricky: Patriots. The Spider-Man meme matchup of the week. As Mike mentioned, these teams are, in many ways, mirror images of each other. And while the Patriots might have a difficult time slowing the Browns’ rushing attack, there’s an equally strong chance New England completely flusters its old friend Jacoby Brissett.
New York Jets at (-7.5) Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. There will be no secrets here given the connection between Matt LaFleur and Robert Saleh. If that’s the case, LaFleur and the Packers coaching staff have displayed an inability to adapt on the fly. New York has the tools to attack the Packers in the middle of the field, while the Jets secondary could add to Green Bay’s offensive issues, especially with Aaron Rodgers banged up.
Ricky: Jets. Historically, the Packers have responded well to losses, with the Rodgers-LaFleur combo going 10-0 ATS in such spots. But they’re laying another big number this week, after an unwanted London trip, and the Jets have the look of live ‘dogs this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars at (-2) Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. Back to the Jacksonville well, but the Colts might be the worst team in the NFL despite somehow only having two losses. The Jags have been doomed by turnovers the last two weeks, but the Colts — with just five takeaways this season — are unlikely to make that an issue this week.
Ricky: Jaguars. The Colts are 1-13-1 ATS versus the Jaguars dating back to 2015, while failing to cover by 11 points per game, and this might be the worst Indianapolis team and the second-best Jacksonville team in that stretch. No way I’m laying points with Indy.
(-3.5) Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. In Mike McDaniel we trust. A full week of practice should help Skylar Thompson, and the game plan should be simple: Get it to your studs. Opposing wideouts are averaging almost 14 yards per reception versus Minnesota this season. As long as Thompson isn’t totally handcuffed, there’s big-play potential.
Ricky: Dolphins. Gut play of the week, because backing a seventh-round rookie QB against a one-loss team feels extremely dangerous.
(-1.5) Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bengals. The Saints’ top cornerback (Marshon Lattimore) and top three receivers (Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry) missed practice Wednesday. Feels like that might be a problem, even if Jameis Winston is back.
Ricky: Bengals. The New Orleans home-field advantage has long been overvalued. And that’s even more notable this week with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase returning to the city where they dominated in college. The Saints avoided a post-London malaise last week against the Seahawks, but given the state of Seattle’s defense, that was a relatively soft landing spot. The explosive plays won’t be there this week against Cincy.
(-5.5) Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. All due respect to the Wink Martindale revenge game, but the Giants are middle of the road in just about everything other than record. I feel like that has to catch up to them at some point, perhaps this week against a well-coached Ravens team.
Ricky: Ravens. I’ll probably be the last one on the Giants bandwagon. Or more likely, I’ll be the one helping everybody off it once the close wins start turning into losses.
(-8) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bucs. Seriously, though: One of these weeks, the Bucs are going to blow someone out, and that defense stomping out a Kenny Pickett-led offense that scored three points last week feels very much on the table here.
Ricky: Bucs. Thought to myself last week as Buffalo demolished Pittsburgh, “Why didn’t the Steelers find a smoother time to insert Pickett?” Then I looked at the Steelers’ schedule from Weeks 5 through 11: Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, bye, Saints, Bengals. Yikes.
Carolina Panthers at (-10) Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. Gulp. Both Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald missed practice this week, and LA had injury issues even before that. I’ll hold my nose and take the points and hope for a 10-3 game.
Ricky: Rams. Perfect get-right spot for the Rams after back-to-back losses to the 49ers and Cowboys. Teams sometimes receive a jolt after a midseason coaching change — a situation the Panthers find themselves in this week after firing Matt Rhule — but Carolina also is turning to P.J. Walker, a quarterback who might not belong in the NFL. It’s hard to imagine the Panthers generating much offense, especially with the Rams’ defense ranking second in rush EPA.
(-3) Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. I liked Arizona last week against Philly because its run-stopping, blitz-heavy defense matched up well with Jalen Hurts’ offense. The Seahawks, though, are surprisingly pass-heavy, and no quarterback in the NFL has a better passer rating vs. the blitz than Seattle’s Geno Smith.
Ricky: Cardinals. I just want to be on the right side of the Seahawks’ offensive collapse.
(-2.5) Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs. The simplest-brain take is that for the first time ever, I’m getting points at home with Patrick Mahomes. To me, this game is a true toss-up, so I will grab the points and not really overthink it.
Ricky: Bills. Buffalo ranks No. 1 in DVOA against tight ends, which will limit Travis Kelce’s big-play potential and therefore hamstring Kansas City’s offense, especially with the Chiefs’ O-line having its hands full with the Bills’ pass rush. This also feels like a good spot for Josh Allen to pick on Kansas City’s secondary as the Chiefs come off a short-week divisional win in which the Raiders averaged 6.8 yards per play.
Dallas Cowboys at (-6) Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. The news midway through the week is encouraging, but the Eagles have three offensive linemen on the injury report listed as “limited” in practice. If they’re at all compromised, that’s going to be a problem against the Cowboys defense. Philly’s minus-14 second-half point differential stands out, too, for a team trying to cover a touchdown.
Ricky: Eagles. The Cowboys are primed for a letdown, heading into the second leg of back-to-back road games after a convincing win over the Rams. Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season, Cooper Rush is 22nd in adjusted completion percentage and 25th in big-time throw percentage, per Pro Football Focus. He’ll need to make plays at some point, assuming Dak Prescott remains sidelined Sunday night, and this represents his biggest test yet.
MONDAY, OCT. 17
Denver Broncos at (-5) Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. I love fading LA teams at home against fanbases who travel, and Broncos country will ride to SoFi for this one. More importantly: The Broncos’ pass defense has been quite good, keeping them in just about every game, and they should be able to run on the Chargers to muddy this up and keep it close.
Ricky: Broncos. Denver hit rock bottom last week, suggesting there’s probably some value here. Do I feel great about the pick? No. But it’s nevertheless the play, as Los Angeles’ inconsistent defense will keep the back door ajar.
