We had touchdowns on “Thursday Night Football,” for which I am grateful. Taking a look at the rest of the Week 7 slate, here are two props to hop on ahead of kickoff and be sure to also check out this teaser option from earlier this week.
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
Joe Burrow over 280.5 passing yards (-115)
Despite my praise for Cincinnati in the preseason, I have been hesitant to bet on the Bengals so far due to their inability to put together a convincing full four-quarter performance. Last week gave me hope. Burrow is coming off his best game of the season so far, after completing 28 of 37 attempts for 300 yards and three touchdowns. He threw zero interceptions against a good Saints defense, thanks in part due to improved protection. After a troubling first two weeks of 13 sacks allowed, the Cincinnati offensive line has not let opponents get to Burrow more than three times. I?m expecting that performance to continue this week against a Falcons front seven that has the second-fewest sacks recorded this season (eight).
As far as the game script goes, the Falcons are the best team in football against the spread right now, 6-0. They are not only coming off a big win against a tough San Francisco 49ers team, but they have also kept every other game under a touchdown difference. This won?t be an easy one for the Bengals and they will have to lean on Burrow and his weapons.
Speaking of his weapons, there is some concern there with both Ja?Marr Chase and Tee Higgins limited in practice but no news so far is good news. Plus, it?s a favorable matchup. Atlanta ranks in the bottom 10 in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the second-most passing yards per game (281.2). Burrow has gone over this prop in three of six weeks, averaging 269.3 yards a game. His attempts prop is set at 37.5. Every game so far where he has attempted at least 37 passes, he has hit this yardage prop (in addition to having 287 yards against the Dolphins on just 31 attempts).
Plus, Burrow is just 85 passing yards shy of 9,000. If (when) he reaches 9,000 on Sunday in his 33rd game, he will tie Matthew Stafford for the fourth-fastest quarterback to reach the number. Great accomplishment, but you can expect him to throw for 200 more yards after he secures the record.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET
Mike Evans over 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
For the life of me, I can not figure out why Mike Evans only had four targets (catching all four) last week in a game where the entire secondary for the Steelers was injured.
Following the Bucs’ 20-18 loss, you would think head coach Todd Bowles and Tom Brady would go back to leaning on their best weapon this week … and that?s why we are going over Evans’ receiving yards prop. He has gone over this prop in three of five weeks so far, averaging almost 5 catches a game and 71.6 receiving yards. It?s a good matchup against a Carolina Panthers defense with the eighth-worst pass defense by DVOA that is allowing the fifth-most targets and the third-most catches (14.2) to wide receivers. The Panthers have been bet to 13-point underdogs for a reason and game script tells us the Bucs will not be playing from behind at any point.
That hasn?t seemed to matter much when it comes to Tampa?s game plan, though. Brady and friends have the second-highest pass play percentage at 65.98% through the first five weeks and as a result, Evans has hit the over on this prop no matter the game script this season.
